氧化铝周报：期现分歧，氧化铝上方压力仍大-20260112

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/12/31 | 2026/1/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2778 | 2843 | 65 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2697 | 2693 | - 4 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 75 | 107 | 32 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 307 | 310 | 3 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | - 29.51 | - 67.68 | - 38.2 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 156917 | 159642 | 2725 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 67.5 | 65 | - 2.5 | US dollars/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 2.34% last week, closing at 2,843 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 2,693 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. [5] - The tight supply situation of domestic bauxite has eased compared to the previous period. Mines in northern regions are gradually resuming production, and with the expected commissioning of new mining areas in the long - term, the supply shortage is expected to gradually ease. Guinea's weekly bauxite exports from major ports reached 4.0808 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons from the previous week, indicating stable shipments. Australia's bauxite mining and shipments have been significantly affected by the rainy season. [5] - On the supply side, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 88.82 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate of alumina plants in China increased by 0.12 percentage points to 80.51% compared to last week, maintaining a high - level operation. [5] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have continued to release newly commissioned production capacity, with an increase in operating capacity compared to last week, resulting in a slight increase in alumina demand. [5] - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory was 160,000 tons on Friday, an increase of 4814 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3.4 Industry News - On January 6, 2026, Metro Mining Ltd. released its December 2025 operation report, showing that its bauxite mine achieved an annual shipment volume of 6.2 million wet metric tons in 2025, reaching the lower limit of the revised guidance range, an increase of 500,000 wet metric tons or 9% year - on - year. [8] - Canyon Resources confirmed in an announcement that the development of its Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon is progressing smoothly. The surface miner has entered Cameroon, and mining operations are expected to start in February 2026. [8] - On January 5, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources publicized the text and review results of the "Exploration Plan for the Yangmaping Block Bauxite Prospecting Right in Fenxi County, Shanxi Province", and the results were approved without objections. [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of alumina futures, alumina spot, alumina spot premium, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite price, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory, which can be used to analyze the market situation of alumina and related raw materials. [10][11][14]