焦煤焦炭周报：供需边际回升，关注预期变化-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downstream steel mills' start - up has rebounded from a low level, with continuous increase in hot metal, but limited upside due to the off - season of terminal demand. The steel mills' coke production remains stable, with a slight increase in daily coke production and stable inventory. The mid - stream coking profit has shrunk significantly, but coke enterprises have good start - up, increased coke production, decreased inventory, and smooth sales. The upstream domestic coal mine production has rebounded after the festival, and coal inventory has increased. Overall, the market sentiment has cooled, the futures price rose sharply and then fell last week. The fundamental support is limited, and the price increase space is restricted. Short - term capital sentiment dominates, and prices fluctuate widely [1][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3144 | 22 | 0.70 | 6567825 | 2367759 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot Rolled Coil | 3294 | 24 | 0.73 | 2987286 | 1440895 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 814.5 | 25.0 | 3.17 | 1706517 | 636674 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1195.5 | 80.5 | 7.22 | 7162354 | 621167 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1748.0 | 55.0 | 3.25 | 158354 | 39551 | Yuan/ton | [3] 2. Market Review - Downstream: The steel mills' start - up rebounded from a low level, and hot metal production increased continuously. However, due to the off - season of terminal demand, the upside of hot metal is limited. The steel mills maintained coke production, with a slight increase in daily coke production and a small change in inventory. Last week, the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous week and 12.99 percentage points from last year. The daily hot metal production was 229.5 tons, an increase of 2.07 tons from the previous week and 5.13 tons from last year. The daily coke production was 46.88 (+0.05) tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.67% (+0.09). The coke inventory was 645.73 (+1.74) tons, and the available days of coke were 12.02 (-0.08) days [5]. - Mid - stream: The coking profit shrank significantly, but coke enterprises had good start - up. Coke production increased, inventory decreased, and sales were smooth. The national average coke profit per ton was - 45 (compared with - 31) yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 72.69% (+0.97); the daily coke production was 63.57 (+0.85) tons, and the coke inventory was 86.07 (-5.53) tons [6]. - Upstream: The domestic coal mine production rebounded after the festival, and coal inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The daily raw coal production was 189.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.7 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 473.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 tons. The daily clean coal production was 73.4 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 295 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 tons [6]. - Overall: Currently, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia mines have not received official documents and notices related to capacity reduction. The market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price rose sharply and then fell last week. The fundamental support is limited. The current domestic coal mine production has rebounded after the festival, the imported coal inventory is high, and the downstream finished product inventory pressure is large in the off - season, restricting the price increase space. In general, short - term capital sentiment dominates, prices fluctuate widely, and operations need to be cautious [1][6]. 3. Industry News - The US President Trump claimed to have successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. The UN Secretary - General was shocked by the escalation of the situation in Venezuela, and the UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the US military action against Venezuela. - The 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity. - In December 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1032.66 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 52.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.5%. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 979.01 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 27%. - The research on key power coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia shows that these mines have not received official documents and notices related to capacity reduction, and the market news has not had a substantial impact on coal mine production and sales. According to the Futures Daily, due to the failure to implement power coal supply guarantee in Yulin, 26 coal mines were removed from the supply guarantee list and their capacity was reduced by 19 million tons, accounting for about 3% of the local planned output in 2025; the capacity increase of the remaining 26 coal mines will be retained temporarily and adjusted dynamically according to the performance of medium - and long - term power coal contracts [10]. 4. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price trends of coking coal and coke, the daily output of independent coking plants, the daily coke output of steel mills, the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises, the daily hot metal output, the inventory of coke at different locations (coking plants, steel mills, ports), the available days of coke for steel mills, the ton - coke profit in different regions, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of coking coal mines, and the inventory of coking coal at different locations [8][11][19][23][28][33][37][39][41].