豆粕周报：进口大豆拍卖重启，连粕震荡延续-20260112

Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - January 12, 2026 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract rose 15.5 to close at 1062.75 cents per bushel, a 1.48% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 37 to close at 2786 yuan per ton, a 1.35% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 1.95% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 27 to close at 2338 yuan per ton, a 1.14% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 10 to 2510 yuan per ton, a 0.4% decrease [5][8]. - The external market stopped falling and stabilized. The market is waiting for the upcoming USDA report, and funds are adjusting their positions. Currently, it is expected that both yield and exports may be lowered. Pay attention to the guidance of the report. The meal market is generally oscillating, with soybean meal relatively stronger than rapeseed meal. The main reason is that the Prime Minister of Canada will visit China, and market rumors suggest that the additional tariff on rapeseed meal may be cancelled. Driven by sentiment, funds increased short positions, causing rapeseed meal to weaken. On the one hand, the arrival of soybeans has decreased month - on - month, and on the other hand, the pre - Spring Festival stocking expectation provides support for the near - term price of soybean meal [5][8]. - The Prime Minister of Canada is about to visit China, and rapeseed meal has weakened under the influence of sentiment. Pay attention to the progress of China - Canada trade agreements. The January USDA report in the United States is expected to show possible decreases in yield and exports, with little change in ending stocks. Funds are adjusting positions and waiting for the report. The external US soybean market has stopped falling and is oscillating. The good weather in South America continues, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest has increased. The expected decrease in domestic soybean arrivals and the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand support the spot price, which is relatively firm. The auction of state - reserved imported soybeans restarted this week, cooling the market to some extent. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate in the short term [5][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT March soybean contract price rose from 1047.25 to 1062.75 cents per bushel, a 1.48% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose from 443 to 450 dollars per ton, a 1.58% increase; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans remained unchanged at 475 dollars per ton; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased from 57.12 to 49.51 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal contract price rose from 2749 to 2786 yuan per ton, a 1.35% increase; the CZCE rapeseed meal contract price fell from 2365 to 2338 yuan per ton, a 1.14% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference increased from 384 to 448 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China rose from 3120 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 0.64% increase; the spot price in South China rose from 3080 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 1.95% increase; the spot - futures price difference in South China increased from 331 to 354 yuan per ton [6]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - In the US, for the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 87.8 tons, down from 117.8 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 2857.6 tons, with a sales progress of 64.2%, compared to 79.2% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 47 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 689.3 tons and an unshipped volume of 570.1 tons. A private exporter reported selling 13.2 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [9]. - According to Conab, as of the week ending January 3, 2026, the soybean planting rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 98.2%, up from 97.9% the previous week, compared to 98.5% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 97.6%. The harvesting work has begun, with a progress of 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the expected soybean export loading volume in January is 240 tons [9][10]. - According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of the week ending January 7, 2026, the soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 88.3%, up from 82% the previous week, compared to 97% in the same period last year [10]. - The weather forecast for South American producing areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than the average, and the precipitation process will continue, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest. The soil moisture in Argentine producing areas has declined, but the overall situation is still good. The cumulative precipitation in Argentine producing areas in the next two weeks will be lower than the average level. Continuously monitor the weather changes [10]. - As of the week ending January 2, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 710.25 tons, an increase of 55.81 tons from the previous week and 115.8 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 117.02 tons, an increase of 0.26 tons from the previous week and 48.66 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 579.8 tons, an increase of 198.2 tons from the previous week and 81.1 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 823.6 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week but an increase of 52.74 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week ending January 9, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 30.5417 tons, including 7.675 tons of spot trading and 22.8667 tons of forward trading. The daily average total trading volume the previous week was 20.44 tons. The daily average pickup volume of soybean meal was 17.385 tons, compared to 18.22 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 176.58 tons, compared to 175.33 tons the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 9.53 days, compared to 9.4 days the previous week [11]. 3. Industry News - The Safras & Mercado institution stated that factors such as oversupply in South America, the US production outlook, and geopolitical uncertainties will affect the soybean price trend in 2026. Looking forward to 2026, the soybean market will have sufficient supply, and the short - term price will face downward pressure, while the support provided by the premium of Brazilian soybeans will be relatively reduced [12]. - The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture reported that farmers' pace of selling soybeans has slowed down. As of December 31, 2025, the pre - sold volume of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 465 tons, compared to 337 tons in the same period last year. The sales volume of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4157 tons, compared to 3562 tons in the same period last year [12]. - The ANEC institution predicted that due to increased competition from the US, Brazil's soybean exports to China in 2026 will drop to 77 million tons, about 10 million tons less than 87 million tons in 2025. It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will still reach a record 112 million tons, compared to about 109 million tons in 2025 [12]. - The Deral institution reported that the soybean harvest in Brazil's Parana state is still in its early stages, and preliminary results show good yields. Currently, about 4% of the soybean crops in the state have entered the maturity stage (the last stage before harvest), compared to 12% in the same period last year. Due to abnormal weather in previous months, the growth cycle of early - sown soybeans has been extended, but the yield is expected to be good. The predicted soybean output in Parana state in the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase [13]. - The Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat reported that Brazil's soybean export pace in December was significantly higher than the same period last year. From December 1 to 31, Brazil's soybean export volume was 3.383 million tons, compared to 2.006 million tons in December last year [13]. - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit China from January 13 to 17, which will be the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017. This visit aims to strengthen cooperation between the two sides in trade, energy, agriculture, and international security. According to sources, as part of the consultations, Canada may suspend the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles for one year. In response, China may temporarily cancel the 100% additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but trade restrictions on Canadian rapeseed will remain [13]. - The StoneX institution reported that the US Department of Agriculture has confirmed the sale of soybeans to China again, increasing the possibility of China achieving its goal of purchasing 12 million tons of soybeans. The predicted soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons, an increase of 0.2% from the December forecast of 177.2 million tons and a 5.2% increase from the previous year's output [14]. - The Cargonave institution reported that Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 reached a record 108.68 million tons, a 11.7% increase from 2024. The surge in Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 was mainly due to record - high production and large - scale purchases from China. Affected by the China - US trade war, Chinese buyers avoided US soybeans for most of 2025 and turned to South American soybeans [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the management fund's net position in the CBOT, the soybean meal main contract trend, the regional soybean meal spot price, the soybean meal M 5 - 9 month spread, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pickup volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [15][16][17][20][24][28][33][35][37][39][41][45][46].