螺纹开启累库，期价震荡走势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry's prosperity has weakened, with a significant drop in the apparent demand for construction steel, indicating deepening off - season demand. The production has increased slightly, and the industry has entered the inventory accumulation stage. The hot - rolled coil data has changed little, with slow inventory reduction at a high level, and the demand is resilient but still under great pressure. The short - term bullish market sentiment has subsided, and the market is expected to return to a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3144 | 22 | 0.70 | 6567825 | 2367759 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3294 | 24 | 0.73 | 2987286 | 1440895 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 814.5 | 25.0 | 3.17 | 1706517 | 636674 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1195.5 | 80.5 | 7.22 | 7162354 | 621167 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1748.0 | 55.0 | 3.25 | 158354 | 39551 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rose, with a sharp rise and fall during the week, affected by the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2980 (+50) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3290 (-10) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270 (0) Yuan/ton [4] - The People's Bank of China's 2026 work conference emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using multiple monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity. On December 26, 2025, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade issued an affirmative final ruling on the anti - dumping sunset review of cold - rolled carbon steel coils originating from China [4] 3.3 Industry News - On December 26, 2025, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade issued an affirmative final ruling on the anti - dumping sunset review of cold - rolled carbon steel coils with a width of less than 1600 mm and a thickness of 0.108 - 2.55 mm originating from China [6][7] - The 2026 People's Bank of China work conference emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and maintaining ample liquidity [10] - In December 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 10.3266 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 52.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.5%. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 9.7901 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 27% [10] - The survey of key coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia showed that no formal documents or official notices related to production capacity reduction have been received, and market news has not had a substantial impact on the coal mine production and sales. According to the Futures Daily, 26 coal mines in Yulin were removed from the coal supply guarantee list and their production capacity was reduced by 19 million tons, accounting for about 3% of the local planned production in 2025. The production capacity increase of the remaining 26 coal mines was temporarily retained and will be adjusted dynamically according to the performance of medium - and long - term coal contracts [10] - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination, including optimizing loan discount policies for service - industry business entities and personal consumption loans, implementing loan discount policies for small and medium - sized enterprises, establishing a special guarantee plan for private investment, establishing a risk - sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, and optimizing the fiscal discount policy for equipment renewal loans [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, rebar basis trend, hot - rolled coil basis trend, rebar spot regional price difference trend, hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, long - process steel mill smelting profit, short - process electric furnace profit in East China, national 247 blast furnace operating rate, 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, rebar production, hot - rolled coil production, rebar social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [8][11][20]