多头获利回吐，铜价高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The main reasons were that after fluctuating in sync with precious metals and hitting new highs, long positions took partial profits at high levels. Although the US non - farm payrolls slightly missed expectations, the unemployment rate declined, and the US dollar index rebounded from a low level. S&P predicts that by 2040, with the development of global artificial intelligence and the upgrade of national defense security, the global total copper demand will increase by about 50% compared to the current level. If the world does not increase copper recycling and ore mining, it is expected to face a supply gap of 10 million tons. Fundamentally, the resumption of production of interrupted mines is slow, the supply of non - US regions is tight, the domestic social inventory has entered a seasonal accumulation cycle, the domestic trade spot maintains a discount, and the C - structure of the near - month contract narrows [2][8]. - Overall, after copper prices hit new historical highs, the market needs short - term valuation repair, but the medium - term fundamental structural imbalance and the global electrification transformation trend will continue to lift the copper price center. Some radical dovish Fed officials still optimistically expect the interest rate cut in 2026 to exceed 100 basis points. Fundamentally, the strike at Chilean mines continues, the release of global refined copper production capacity is blocked, and emerging industries provide broad prospects for consumption growth. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong high - level shock in the short term [3][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Price Changes: From January 2nd to January 9th, LME copper rose from $12,460.50/ton to $12,965.50/ton, a 4.05% increase; COMEX copper rose from 569.8 cents/pound to 589.05 cents/pound, a 3.38% increase; SHFE copper rose from 98,240 yuan/ton to 101,410 yuan/ton, a 3.23% increase; international copper rose from 87,870 yuan/ton to 90,150 yuan/ton, a 2.59% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.88 to 7.82, the LME spot premium increased from $38.60/ton to $41.94/ton, an 8.65% increase, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from - 190 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of January 9th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 939,099 tons, a 5.92% increase from January 2nd. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 6,350 tons (-4.37%), COMEX inventory increased by 18,158 short tons (3.63%), SHFE inventory increased by 35,201 tons (24.22%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,500 tons (5.72%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Fluctuation Reasons: The high - level fluctuation of copper prices was due to long - position profit - taking, the rebound of the US dollar index, the expected increase in future copper demand, slow mine resumption, and seasonal inventory accumulation [2][8]. - Inventory Situation: As of January 9th, the global inventory continued to rise. The LME copper inventory decreased, the SHFE inventory and Shanghai保税区 inventory increased. The decline of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts was mainly due to the increasing import loss, and the decline of the Shanghai - London ratio was due to the recent rebound of the US dollar [8]. - Macroeconomic Situation: In the US, the ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, slightly lower than expected, indicating a weak labor market but no further deterioration. Trump's remarks on Greenland and the Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts affected market sentiment. In China, the CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Consumer goods prices rose, energy prices decreased, and food prices had a mixed performance [9]. - Supply and Demand Situation: The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued, increasing concerns about concentrate supply shortage. The resumption of other major interrupted mines was slow, and the global mine - end supply growth rate in 2026 will be less than 1.5%. In November 2026, China's electrolytic copper production increased year - on - year, and copper concentrate imports also increased significantly. In terms of demand, traditional industries such as power grid investment, white - goods consumption, and real estate were weak, while emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and AI data centers had strong demand [10]. 3. Industry News - Mantoverde Copper Mine Strike: Workers at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued their strike due to the failure of negotiations between the company and the union. The mine was almost completely shut down, and the operation capacity of the concentrator was only 30% of the normal level [13]. - Mercuria's Investment in Kazakhstan: Mercuria Energy Group provided a $1.2 billion loan to acquire Kazakhmys. It has carried out a series of metal - related transactions in recent years, and aims to increase its financing scale in the metal field in 2026 [14]. - Codelco's Production: Codelco achieved its production target in 2025, with a production of 1.333 million tons of copper, a 0.4% increase from the previous year. The company plans to increase production slightly to 1.344 million tons in 2026 [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, basis, spreads, and other indicators of copper in different markets, including Shanghai and LME, to help analyze the copper market situation [16][17][18].