基本面指引有限，铅价跟随板块运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The macro - environment was positive with loose global monetary policies and resource premiums due to geopolitical conflicts, leading to a general rise in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The fundamentals showed a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure was limited as the increase and decrease in primary and secondary lead production offset each other. Consumption was dragged down by the expiration of policies and battery export pressure, and social inventories were expected to increase slowly. With multiple factors in play, the fundamentals provided limited guidance, and it was expected that the lead price would fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous metal sector [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 1/2 | 1/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17355 | 17355 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1994 | 2046.5 | 52.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.70 | 8.48 | - 0.22 | | | SHFE Inventory | 28004 | 30111 | 2107 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 239325 | 222725 | - 16600 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 1.91 | 1.96 | 0.05 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 70 | - 130 | - 60 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - After the New Year's Day holiday, the main 2602 contract of Shanghai lead futures had a good start. The stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals rose generally. The lead price rose following the sector rotation, reaching a weekly high of 17860 yuan/ton. Then, as some funds took profits, the lead price adjusted at a high level and finally closed at 17395 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.2%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. LME lead rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the year, non - ferrous metals rose generally. LME lead broke through 2025 US dollars/ton and continued to rise. It started to adjust near the upper edge of the oscillation range and finally closed at 2046.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of 2.63%. In the spot market, by January 9, lead warehouse receipts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were quoted at 17245 - 17315 yuan/ton, at a discount of 10 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2601 contract. After the high - level decline of Shanghai lead, the quotes of warehouse receipts by holders decreased, and more factory - delivered goods were sold. Some smelting enterprises with increased inventory pressure actively quoted for sales. The mainstream origin quotes were at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and in some regions, the premium was 100 - 150 yuan/ton. Secondary lead smelters generally sold at a discount, with secondary refined lead quoted at a discount of 300 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see and only purchased on a need - to - basis [6]. - In terms of inventory, by January 9, the LME weekly inventory was 222725 tons, a weekly decrease of 16600 tons. The SHFE inventory was 30111 tons, an increase of 2107 tons. By January 8, the SMM five - region social inventory was 1.96 million tons, an increase of 0.12 million tons compared with December 31 and an increase of more than 500 tons compared with January 5 [7]. 3.3 Industry News - On January 9, 2026, the processing fees for domestic and foreign lead concentrates were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 US dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining flat compared with the previous period [9]. - On the evening of January 7, Fuyang City, Anhui Province lifted the orange alert for air pollution, and some secondary lead enterprises in the region gradually resumed full - production operations [9].