工业硅周报：反垄断政策明确，工业硅震荡调整-20260112

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The polysilicon market was affected by anti - monopoly regulatory policies, which may restrict the volume and price of leading silicon enterprises and drag down the fundamental demand for industrial silicon in the short term [2][5][8]. - The supply side continued to converge. Xinjiang's开工率 dropped to around 80%, the production in Southwest China was weak during the dry season, and the production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was stable. The demand side also showed a weak trend. Polysilicon supply entered a convergence state, with significant production cuts in some parts of Southwest China, and the output in December was expected to drop to 110,000 tons. The production cuts of silicon wafer enterprises effectively relieved the inventory pressure, but the overall market shipments were limited. The capacity release of battery cell enterprises did not change significantly, and the second - and third - tier enterprises controlled the shipment rhythm. The rising silver price significantly pushed up the production cost, which was expected to drag down the production plan. Near the end of the year, the demand for components was weak, and enterprises mostly produced based on sales to control inventory, with the mainstream TOPCON182 transaction price maintained at 0.66 - 0.72 yuan/watt. The social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons last week, and the spot market of industrial silicon remained stable overall due to the weakening of futures prices [2][5][8]. - Overall, the sudden anti - monopoly regulatory policy on polysilicon dampened market confidence, and the seasonal off - peak consumption at the end of the year dragged down the inventory removal rhythm of silicon materials, causing the market sentiment in the industrial products sector to cool down significantly. Technically, the main contract temporarily found support at the 8550 level, but the short - term upward space might be limited, and the futures price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data | Contract | 1/9/25 | 12/31/24 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8715 | 8860 | - 145 | - 1.64% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9250 | 9250 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9650 | 9650 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10350 | 10350 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 13600 | 13600 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 54 | 52 | 2 | 3.85% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.3 | 56.1 | - 0.8 | - 1.43% | 10,000 tons | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro aspect: China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year in December, the highest in 34 months. The effect of consumption - boosting policies continued to appear, and the prices of communication tools, mother and baby products, cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods, and household appliances all rose, with the increase ranging from 1.4% to 3.0%. Affected by the rise in international gold prices, the price of domestic gold jewelry increased by 5.6%. Energy prices dropped by 0.5%, with domestic gasoline prices dropping by 1.2% due to international oil price changes, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.04% month - on - month. Food prices increased by 0.3%, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.05% month - on - month. Before the festival, the demand for fresh fruits and shrimp and crab increased, with prices rising by 2.6% and 2.5% respectively. The price of fresh vegetables rose by 0.8%, with the increase lower than the seasonal level by 3.3%. The production capacity of pigs was relatively sufficient, and the price of pork dropped by 1.7% [6]. - Policy aspect: The national regulatory authorities clearly put forward rectification requirements, including comprehensively sorting out the coordinated actions carried out and submitting a complete description including investment agreements and meeting minutes. The rectification plan should strictly prohibit the agreement on production capacity, production and sales volume, and sales quota, strictly prohibit market division and profit distribution, and at the same time, prohibit coordination on information such as price and cost. Enterprises and associations are required to establish an anti - monopoly mechanism and submit written rectification measures by January 20th. If they violate the regulations again in the future, law enforcement will be initiated [6][7]. - Inventory aspect: As of January 9th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. The terminal consumption slowed down as the social inventory rose again. The registered warehouse receipt volume in the exchange continued to increase. As of January 9th, the warehouse receipt inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose to 10,888 lots, totaling 54,000 tons. After the expiration of the exchange's warehouse receipts, they were re - registered and stored again. After the exchange implemented the new warehouse receipt delivery standard, the current mainstream 5 - series goods became the main delivery model in the exchange. The 5 - series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard are actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored is increasing day by day. The warehouse receipt inventory has remained around 50,000 tons recently mainly because the positive effect of the photovoltaic industry in responding to the national call for anti - involution has strengthened the enterprise production cut expectation [7]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and starting from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled. For the products subject to consumption tax among the above - mentioned products, the export consumption tax policy will remain unchanged, and the consumption tax refund (exemption) policy will continue to apply. The export tax rebate rate applicable to the products listed in this announcement is determined by the export date indicated on the export goods declaration form [9]. - Recently, Jiangsu Institute of China Energy Engineering Group won the bid for the survey and design service of the 1.5 - million - kilowatt photovoltaic desert control project of the Western Inner Mongolia Tuoketuo Power Transmission Phase II of Tuoketuo New Energy Division of Inner Mongolia Company. This project is the third batch of large - scale wind and solar power base projects in the country, located in Dalate Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, with a planned installed capacity of 1.5 GW. The project integrates photovoltaic power generation and desert control, using forms such as photovoltaic desert control and grass - light complementarity to strengthen sand prevention and fixation measures, curb desert expansion, and promote the efficient use of land resources, with good ecological, economic, and social benefits. After the project is completed, it can provide 2.6 billion kWh of clean electricity to the power grid on average every year, save more than 790,000 tons of standard coal, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 2.16 million tons, effectively increasing the proportion of "green electricity" in the regional power grid [10]. - In the face of the complex overseas market barriers, China's photovoltaic industry is at a critical turning point in going global. The Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network conducted in - depth research on many leading enterprises in the industry and launched a special series of analyses on overseas markets, focusing on the Middle East. According to the development plans announced by various countries, by 2030, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Jordan, and Egypt plan to increase the proportion of renewable energy power generation to 50%, 35%, 31%, and 42% respectively, and Oman's goal is to reach 30%. In addition, the UAE aims to increase the installed capacity of renewable energy to 14.2 GW by 2030, and Oman has also set a photovoltaic power generation installed capacity target of 4.5 GW. Chinese enterprises have played a crucial role in this process. Incomplete statistics show that since this year, Chinese engineering enterprises represented by China Energy Engineering Group and Power Construction Corporation of China have signed, started, and connected more than 15 photovoltaic projects in the Middle East, including ten "GW - level" major projects [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, weekly production in major production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon spot price, and organic silicon spot price, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [13][14][15].