Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and positive factors jointly drive up the prices of crude oil and silver; the fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in prices; the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term; the prices of rebar and glass are expected to fluctuate; the short - term supply - demand game of live pigs continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a range; the prices of asphalt and synthetic rubber have short - term support; the copper market is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern; the methanol and plastic markets are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger; the long - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the medium term; the precious metals strengthen due to the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment [2][4][5][7][8][9][10][11][12] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - As of January 9, the number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased by 3 from the previous week and 71 from the same period last year; the EIA predicts that the US crude oil daily output will drop from 13.6 million barrels in 2025 to about 13.5 million barrels in 2026; the deteriorating situation in Iran and geopolitical risks drive up the oil price, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [2] Silver - Trump cancels the second - wave military strike against Venezuela, and all US ships remain in place; he also plans to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. The superposition of risk - aversion and stimulus factors drives up the silver price, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [2] Coking Coal - The average national coke - making profit per ton is - 45 yuan/ton. The improvement of Mongolian coal imports and the upcoming Chinese New Year coal - mine holidays will relieve the supply pressure, and the demand is expected to improve, so the coking coal price has upward momentum [4] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills is 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons; the daily consumption is 2.8328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,100 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.73 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Rebar - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points; the steel - mill profitability rate is 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output is 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate [5] Live Pigs - As of January 9, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.03 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 35.37%, a decrease of 0.34%. The short - term supply - demand game continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a range [5] Palm Oil - The domestic palm - oil spot basis is stable. The MPOB report will be released today. There is a game between the "positive policy expectations from Indonesia" and the "high inventory in Malaysia". Short - term participation is recommended [6] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean - meal spot price is stable with an upward trend. The willingness of oil mills and traders to support prices has increased, but the downstream's enthusiasm for chasing up prices is weak. The short - term 05 contract is expected to enter a shock - consolidation period, and short - term participation is recommended [6] Asphalt - In the first week of 2026, the comprehensive production - capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt manufacturers is 25.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The price has short - term support [7] Synthetic Rubber - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene - rubber output is 1.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 135,000 tons; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate as of January 8 is 79.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate of butadiene as of January 9 is 71.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%, and the butadiene port inventory is 41,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The price mainly fluctuates with the cost [8] Copper - The US non - farm payrolls data in December 2025 is lower than expected, and the employment market is still weak. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term [9] Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate is 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%; the methanol port inventory is 1.5372 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,710 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 10 yuan/ton; the weekly output is 301,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%; the production - enterprise inventory is 144,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [10][11] Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1,093 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 7 yuan/ton; the float - glass operating rate is 71.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the total inventory of sample float - glass enterprises is 55.551 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11] Long - term Treasury Bonds - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The inflation situation is not enough to disturb the monetary policy, and the bonds are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [12] Gold - The Jordanian military conducts air strikes on ISIS targets in Syria, and the risk - aversion sentiment drives up the precious - metal price. Excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [12]
宁证期货今日早评-20260112
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2026-01-12 01:27