强势品种回调，锂价仍在高位运行

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the industrial aspect, the off - season for terminal demand is coming, but vehicle sales from January to February may be better than expected due to factors such as early national subsidy distribution, car companies' support for vehicle purchase tax, etc. Energy storage demand grows steadily limited by production capacity. There may be a rush to export lithium batteries in the first quarter due to the reduction of export tax rebates after April 1st. On the supply side, imported concentrates of traders are arriving at ports, but high lithium ore prices and high - level operation of lithium salt plants limit supply growth, and January supply may be flat month - on - month. Inventory also supports prices. In the futures aspect, although a recent meeting aimed to suppress over - expansion of lithium battery production capacity, the market is still strong, and lithium prices may continue to rise due to the expected rush to export. In the medium - to - long - term, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Demand Analysis New Energy Vehicles - Off - season but Better than Expected - From January to November 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.2466 billion, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The off - season from January to February has the lowest vehicle sales, but factors like early national subsidy distribution and car companies' support for purchase tax may make the seasonality of power batteries stronger than expected. Power cell production follows the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.9% to 1245.5GWh from January to December, and a 6.1% month - on - month decline in ternary power in January [11] New Energy Vehicles - Differentiated Electrification Progress in Europe and the US - From January to November 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 1.839 billion. European sales increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by only 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million. The US取消IRA新能源汽车补贴 led to an early sales peak, while European countries' subsidies and carbon emission requirements stimulated sales growth. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to November 2025 reached 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [15] Energy Storage Market - Strong Orders but Production Capacity Bottlenecks Limit Scheduling Growth - In 2025, China's energy storage cell production reached 529.4GWh, a year - on - year increase of 54%. Energy storage cell inventory is at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle is extended. Scheduling in January increased by 1% month - on - month [20] January Downstream Scheduling Weakens but May be Revised Upward - In December 2023, battery production increased by 3.5% month - on - month, while in January 2024, it decreased by 5.9% month - on - month. Cell production also showed different trends in December and January. In January, affected by weak power demand, the off - season continued, but it may be revised upward due to the expected rush to export, with a continued month - on - month decline expected in February [27] Supply Analysis Stable but Slightly Declining Lithium Carbonate Production - In January, due to the maintenance of some smelters, production scheduling decreased by 1.2% month - on - month. From January to December, domestic lithium carbonate production reached 871,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44%. This week, mica - based lithium production decreased, but other raw material production made up for it, keeping the production relatively stable [32] China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not elaborated further in the content other than presenting relevant charts January Supply of Lithium Carbonate Declines Marginally - From January to November 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 219,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In November, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports decreased. It is expected that both lithium concentrate imports and lithium carbonate imports will decline month - on - month in January [41] Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated further in the content other than presenting relevant charts Lithium Carbonate Turns to Inventory Accumulation - This week, social inventory increased by 337 tons, turning to inventory accumulation for the first time in 20 weeks. Upstream and downstream destocking led to accelerated inventory accumulation in the trading sector [44]