Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market is still warm, with strong support from the tight supply of copper mines and the strength of LME spot. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and rise in the short term [2][3]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong, supported by positive factors such as the low overseas inventory and the improvement of the domestic spot market [4]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to run strongly in the short term due to the strong cost - side price and continuous supply - side disturbances [7][8]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector, influenced by the current industrial situation and market sentiment [9][10]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous metal sector sentiment, with potential for a significant catch - up increase compared to copper and aluminum [11][12]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][16]. - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [17]. - The lithium carbonate price is in a bullish trend, but the rapid rise increases the risk of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [19][21]. - The alumina price is expected to be mainly observed in the short term, and it is advisable to wait for an opportunity to short the near - month contracts at high prices [23][24]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillating trend in the short term due to stable cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction [26][27]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The LME copper 3M closed up 2.07% to $12,965 per ton on Friday, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,220 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 138,975 tons, while the SHFE inventory increased significantly [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The policy is expected to remain in a loose direction, and the domestic manufacturing industry is improving. The supply of copper mines is tight, so the copper price is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 100,000 - 104,500 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - $13,250 per ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: The aluminum price rose after a decline, with the LME aluminum closing up 1.98% to $3,149 per ton on Friday, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closing at 24,465 yuan per ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted - contract positions increased, and inventory changes varied [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supported by macro - sentiment, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,100 - 24,800 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,100 - $3,180 per ton [4][5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract AD2603 closed up 1.77% to 22,985 yuan per ton on Friday. The weighted - contract positions increased, and the inventory situation changed [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: With strong cost - side prices and continuous supply - side disturbances, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term [7][8]. Lead - Market Information: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.14% to 17,381 yuan per ton last Friday, and the LME lead 3S rose to $2,040 per ton. Various price and inventory data are provided [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous metal sector sentiment, affected by the industrial situation and market sentiment [10]. Zinc - Market Information: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.01% to 24,007 yuan per ton last Friday, and the LME zinc 3S fell to $3,152.5 per ton. Multiple price and inventory indicators are given [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc industry situation has not improved significantly, but it has a large potential for a catch - up increase compared to copper and aluminum. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sector sentiment [12]. Tin - Market Information: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 352,540 yuan per ton on Friday, up 0.83%. The supply and demand situation and inventory changes are described [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market risk preference in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - $47,000 per ton [14][16]. Nickel - Market Information: The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 139,090 yuan per ton on January 10, up 1.94%. Spot prices, cost - side prices, and nickel - iron prices are reported [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The nickel market has a large surplus pressure, but the domestic loose liquidity provides support. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - $19,000 per ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: On January 9, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose, and prices of different grades and contracts changed. The price of imported lithium concentrate also increased [19]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The bullish trend continues, but the rapid rise increases the correction risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 139,500 - 148,500 yuan per ton [20][21]. Alumina - Market Information: On January 9, the alumina index fell 0.65% to 2,830 yuan per ton. There were changes in positions, basis, and inventory. The ore prices decreased [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina market faces multiple difficulties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short the near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan per ton [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,860 yuan per ton on Friday, up 1.35%. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory data are presented [26][27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Affected by the nickel price and market supply - demand, the price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillating trend in the short term [27].
有色金属日报-20260112
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-12 01:32