国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The market is characterized by a game between industrial and secondary funds, with a wide - range volatile movement [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Tariff adjustments are beneficial to short - term demand, and the market is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the downstream production cut situation [2]. - Polysilicon: The market will move within a range [2][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Data on nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials of related products in the industrial chain, are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 139,090, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,860 [5]. - News: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, plan to cut nickel ore production, and some mines face potential fines [5][6][8]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamentals: Comprehensive data on lithium carbonate futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials in the industrial chain, are provided. For instance, the closing price of the 2601 contract is 138,700 [10]. - News: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price has increased, 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium mine have arrived at Yangpu Port, and there are changes in the export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products [11][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Data on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, price differentials, and inventory levels, are shown. For example, the closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,715, and the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 51,300 [13]. - News: Japan's TOYO has signed a supply agreement with a US polysilicon manufacturer, and there are details about the polysilicon production capacity in the US [13][15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15].