彭博指数调整，金银高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index led to selling pressure on gold and silver, but after two days of adjustment, the impact on the market gradually decreased, and gold and silver stabilized after the correction. The weakening of the US labor market and the potential interference with the Fed's independence are the main drivers of the rise in precious metals [3][4][34] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Comprehensive Analysis - The Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustment from January 8 - 14 reduced the gold weight from about 20.4% to 14.9% and the silver weight from about 9.6% to 3.94%, resulting in a selling pressure of about $6 - 7 billion for each. The impact on the silver market was more significant. After the adjustment, the market gradually stabilized, and geopolitical events increased the demand for limited metal resources [3] - US employment data in December showed a further decline in labor market momentum. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, possibly due to some unemployed leaving the labor market. The revised employment data increased market concerns [4] - Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, buy on dips near the 5 - day moving average. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [5] 3.2 Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Market Trading Mainline - The focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump has continuously pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, and the independence of the Fed has become a market focus [16][34] - US Economy - GDP growth in the second quarter was 3.8%, higher than expected, but a detailed analysis showed that the growth was somewhat deceptive. Consumption and investment were weak, and retail data was also affected by tariffs [42][44] - The US employment market cooled unexpectedly. In December, non - farm employment increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the annual employment growth was the weakest since the pandemic [53] - Inflation rebounded moderately, and the Fed's target focus shifted. Inflation data was also affected by the government shutdown [56] - The Fed stopped shrinking its balance sheet. Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction might end soon, marking a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral waiting" [62] 3.3 Chapter 3: Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - Gold - Global Supply and Demand - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total gold supply was 3,717 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. In the third quarter, the total supply reached a record high. Investment demand dominated, with an increase in ETF holdings and strong demand for gold bars and coins. Central bank gold purchases remained high, while jewelry consumption declined [65][66] - Domestic Supply and Demand - In the first three quarters of 2025, China produced 392.931 tons of gold, a 3.60% year - on - year increase, and consumed 682.730 tons, a 7.95% year - on - year decrease. Gold jewelry consumption decreased, while demand for gold bars, coins, and industrial use increased [70] - Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, central banks, especially those of developing countries, have been actively buying gold. Reasons vary by country, such as optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging risks [77] - Silver - World Supply and Demand Balance - The supply of silver is relatively stable due to its associated production. Demand is mainly affected by industrial use, especially photovoltaic use. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2% to 32,055 tons, and the demand - supply gap is expected to narrow [79] - Inventory - LBMA inventory was affected by various factors, including the Trump administration's potential tariff policy and the "short squeeze" in the London market. The overall global silver inventory has rebounded from the bottom in 2024 [85] - ETF Demand and Supply - Demand Observation - LBMA inventory has about 27,000 tons of silver, but only about 7,000 tons can be freely circulated. The overseas silver lease rate has fluctuated, and the high rate reflects the supply - demand contradiction [87]