合成橡胶：高位震荡

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to the fermentation of geopolitical conflicts in various regions, international energy prices are running strongly. Butadiene and synthetic rubber, as part of the oil product sector, may be supported by short - term sector fluctuations. The butadiene market has a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations, with its fundamentals being short - term neutral. The apparent demand for synthetic rubber remains high, and its fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, mainly fluctuating with the cost side [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber (BR) 02 contract, the daily closing price decreased by 180 yuan/ton to 12,015 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 66,416 lots to 101,221 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,889 lots to 26,339 lots, and the trading value decreased by 418,950 ten - thousand yuan to 609,966 ten - thousand yuan [1] 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis (Shandong BR - futures main contract) increased by 80 to - 15, and the monthly spread (BR02 - BR05) remained unchanged at - 35. The prices of North China, East China, and South China private BR decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,600, 11,650, and 11,700 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.3 Spot Market - The market price of Shandong BR (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber model 1502 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,200 yuan/ton, and model 1712 remained unchanged at 11,100 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,250 and 9,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.4 Fundamentals - The BR operating rate increased by 0.02% to 79.6897%, and the theoretical full cost and profit of BR remained unchanged at 11,873 yuan/ton and 27 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of January 7, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 41,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from the previous period. The arrival of imported ships decreased significantly, the downstream industries had good operating rates, and the raw material inventory was normally consumed, leading to the decline in port inventory [2] - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic BR inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 1.08% from the previous period. The domestic BR production remained at a high level, and the market was boosted by the sharp increase in raw material prices. The production enterprises' shipments improved, but there was some unsold inventory waiting to be picked up. The overall inventory change was limited, and the inventory of some sample traders decreased slightly [2][3]