国新国证期货早报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on January 9, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 16 - day consecutive rise and reaching over 4100 points, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. For example, the prices of copper,生猪, etc. are influenced by different factors and show different trends [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 9, the three major A - share indexes continued to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.92% to 4120.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.15% to 14120.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 3327.81 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31526 billion yuan, an increase of 3261 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - On January 9, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1198.0 yuan, down 7.7 from the previous day, and the coke weighted index closed at 1749.6, down 32.0 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the EU carbon tariff has increased the cost of steel exports to the EU, the supply - side coke enterprise start - up has increased, and the total inventory has accumulated; the demand - side blast furnace start - up has also increased, and the daily average pig iron output has increased. For coking coal, domestic mine production capacity has recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance is relatively sufficient, and the clean coal inventory has accumulated, while the downstream steel - coke load has increased, but the coke enterprise profit loss has expanded [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - US sugar futures prices fell slightly due to the prospect of supply surplus last Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract showed a volatile consolidation trend. As of the week ending January 6, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,654 to 170,756 [4]. Rubber - Affected by short - selling pressure, Shanghai rubber futures prices fell last Friday. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 3345 tons to 120950 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3900 tons to 104490 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 2015 tons to 59270 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1007 tons to 56952 tons [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, China has purchased nearly 10 million tons of US soybeans, reaching 80% of the negotiated purchase plan. Brazilian soybeans are mostly sown, and early - maturing soybeans are entering the harvest period. It is estimated that Brazil's soybean exports to China in 2026 will be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. - Domestically, on January 9, the soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. Last week, the soybean crushing of oil mills slowed down, and the imported soybean inventory increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week. High - level soybean meal inventory will hinder price increases [6]. Live Pigs - On January 9, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11770 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The group farms have completed their annual slaughter plans, and the slaughter plan of breeding enterprises in January has been reduced. The demand side has strong seasonal consumption, which supports the price in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [7]. Shanghai Copper - Last Friday, the Shanghai copper main contract showed an upward trend, closing at 102220 yuan/ton. The macro - level has a strong easing expectation, and the supply of global copper mines remains tight. Although it is currently in the consumption off - season, emerging industries bring long - term demand growth. It is predicted that global copper demand will increase by 50% in 2040 [8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14490 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased compared with the previous trading day. The downstream yarn mills' purchasing power has weakened [8]. Iron Ore - On January 9, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed down 0.73% at 814.5 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [8]. Logs - On January 9, the log 2603 main contract opened at 780.5, with a lowest of 771, a highest of 780.5, and closed at 774.5, with a decrease of 258 lots in positions. The spot - end support needs to be concerned [8]. Asphalt - On January 9, the asphalt 2603 main contract closed up 0.51% at 3171 yuan. The current asphalt supply is at a low level, the inventory has accumulated, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the demand has decreased significantly. Supported by the cost of crude oil, the short - term price shows a volatile trend [10]. Steel - The current supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are stable, with low production, low consumption, and low inventory. After the New Year's Day, the building materials will enter the winter storage market. The plate is still restricted by high inventory, and the inventory pressure remains after the steel mills resume production. The black commodities are strong in the short term, but the fundamentals need to be tested later [10]. Alumina - The bauxite price has slightly declined, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, and the supply has slightly decreased. The demand for alumina has increased slightly due to the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The raw material alumina price is low, and the electrolytic aluminum plant's theoretical profit is good, with a positive production start - up sentiment. The domestic electrolytic aluminum new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is relatively stable. Due to the off - season, the downstream new orders have decreased, and the aluminum ingot inventory has continued to accumulate [10].