工业硅：关注下游减产情况，多晶硅：区间震荡

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to downstream production cuts in industrial silicon and indicating that polysilicon will experience range - bound fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market: The Si2605 closing price was 8,715 yuan/ton, with a change of - 145 yuan/ton compared to T - 5; the PS2605 closing price was 51,300 yuan/ton, down 6,620 yuan/ton from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also showed corresponding changes [1]. - Basis: The industrial silicon spot premium or discount showed different values when benchmarked against different products, such as + 535 yuan/ton when benchmarked against East China Si5530. The polysilicon spot premium against N - type re - investment was + 3950 yuan/ton [1]. - Prices: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 55000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from T - 1 [1]. - Profits: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2611.5 yuan/ton, and that in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 4919 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 10.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from T - 1 [1]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.2 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from T - 5. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 30.2 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from T - 5 [1]. - Raw Material Costs: The prices of various raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions remained relatively stable, with little change compared to previous periods [1]. - Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Sector: The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) was 1.69 yuan/piece, and the price of battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) was 0.39 yuan/watt. The price of photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) was 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.75 yuan/cubic meter from T - 5 [1]. - Profits in the Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Sectors: The DMC price was 13600 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit was 1612 yuan/ton. The ADC12 price was 23700 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit was - 330 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Japan's Toyo (TOYO) has signed a one - year supply agreement with an unnamed US polysilicon manufacturer to secure raw material supply for its 2GW solar cell factory in Ethiopia and 1GW component factory in Houston, Texas. TOYO plans to expand its Ethiopian production capacity to 4GW and Texas component production capacity to 2.5GW later this year. As of the end of 2025, the in - operation capacity of domestic polysilicon in the US reached 33GW, but the in - operation capacity of active silicon ingots and wafers was only 8.3GW [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].