南华期货白糖产业周报：巴西糖出口成本压制-20260112

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core Views - The key issue in the market is whether the current price has reached the bottom. The core contradictions affecting the sugar price trend include whether the price of the 05 contract has bottomed out, and why the international market cannot hold the price at 15 cents. The 05 contract is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but is similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price, so its price may follow the raw sugar price. However, considering the lack of bullish factors, the probability of the futures price rising further is limited. The 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may become a pressure level in the long - term due to global oversupply [1] - In the short - term trading logic, as the SR2601 contract enters the delivery month, the 3 - 5 spread has turned from positive to negative. The 03 contract faces greater pressure as it is after the Spring Festival and during the peak period of domestic sugar inventory. In the long - term trading logic, SR2605 is a transit contract and not a turning - point contract. In 2026, the import pressure will increase from May, so SR2609 faces greater pressure from imports and carry - over inventory than SR2605 [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The focus of market trading is whether the current price has reached the bottom. The 05 contract is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price. The price may follow the raw sugar price, but with limited upside potential due to lack of bullish factors. The 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may be a pressure level [1] - In the short - term, the 3 - 5 spread has changed from positive to negative, and the 03 contract has more pressure. In the long - term, SR2609 has greater import and carry - over inventory pressure than SR2605 [3][6] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a sideways shock. The Zhengzhou sugar moving averages show a sideways pattern, and the 05 contract's K - line has faced resistance near the 60 - day moving average. The price may fluctuate and potentially fall back to the 20 - day moving average [8] - Recent strategy review includes various positions such as long SR2511 (stopped out), selling spot + buying SR2511 (entered), long SR2511 and short SR2601 (exited), long SR2601 and short SR2605 (profited), etc. [9] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5000 - 5300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.88% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [10] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5300 - 5350, and sell call options (SR603C5400) with a 50% ratio at 35 - 40. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 25% ratio at 5150 - 5200, and sell put options (SR603P5000) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 [10] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: As of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in northern and northeastern Brazil decreased by 9% year - on - year. As of January 7, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 25.35% year - on - year, with corresponding decreases in sugar content, sugar - making rate, and sugar production [11] - Bearish information: As of December, Guangxi's sugar production decreased by 80.95 tons year - on - year, and sales decreased by 74.74 tons; Yunnan's sugar production increased by 6.54 tons, and sales increased by 0.43 tons. Inner Mongolia's sugar production is expected to increase by 5 tons. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugarcane crushing volume increased compared to the same period last season. Brazil's sugar exports in December increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar increased. Indian sugar mills have signed about 180,000 tons of sugar export contracts [12] 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Monitor Brazil's weekly port waiting sugar volume and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) and Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The futures price rose this week, with the main 05 contract up 0.7%. The position of the SR2605 contract decreased seasonally, the largest profitable seat increased net short positions to 27,000 contracts, and foreign capital's net short positions decreased slightly to 36,400 contracts. The market shows a sideways shock [16] - Domestic Market - Basis and Spread Structure: The basis of the 03 contract shows that the cheapest deliverable is at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the market, mainly due to the decline in import prices. The market price is at a premium of 54 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread has weakened since December, changing from near - month premium to discount. The forward structure is gradually changing to a far - month premium [18] - Foreign Market: The raw sugar price rose 1.99% last week, approaching the Brazilian export cost line. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large number of short positions, with a net short position of 154,000 contracts, which increased compared to the previous week [20] - Foreign Market - Spread Structure: The raw sugar futures structure is gradually changing to a Contango structure. Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production decreased by 25% year - on - year. The far - month premium is beneficial for sugar mills' hedging, and there is hedging pressure above 15.2 cents [22] - Domestic and Foreign Price Difference Tracking: Due to the quota system, the price relationship between the domestic and foreign sugar markets is complex. Currently, the domestic supply pressure has increased, and the overseas export profit has shrunk to a loss, changing the previous pattern of domestic strength and foreign weakness to domestic weakness and foreign strength [24] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar with high production costs, so it implements a quota system. Recently, due to the continuous decline in the foreign market price and the firm domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit has been very high. In addition to sugar imports, syrup and premixed powder imports can also supplement the supply. Although the import window from Thailand and Vietnam was closed last year, imports from other Asian countries such as Malaysia have increased. The import of syrup and premixed powder has been relatively stable [27] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Since the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly compared to last year, reaching about 1.156 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 season, and this week's data remains unchanged [29]