对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套，PTA：成本支撑偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided on the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides short - term and medium - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., taking into account factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical situation [7][8][9]. - For different futures, specific trading strategies are recommended, such as paying attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage, hedging strategies, and adjusting positions according to market trends [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - PX: It is in a unilateral high - level shock market. Fundamentally, it is expected to gradually weaken, but short - term support comes from cost and capital. It is recommended to pay attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage and the hedge strategy of going long PX and short PTA [7]. - PTA: It has strong cost support. Although the future demand is expected to decline, the current low - inventory de - stocking situation makes the unilateral price still tend to be strong. Attention should be paid to the position of narrowing processing margins [8]. - MEG: It shows a short - term strong rebound. With the improvement of the turnover efficiency of the intermediate trading link and the reduction of supply pressure, it is recommended to close short positions and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage [9]. 2. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It is in a wide - range shock. The cost of raw materials for semi - steel tires has increased, and the profit has decreased. The demand outlook is unclear, and price competition is expected to continue [10][14][15]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is in a high - level shock. The short - term market is supported by the rise of international energy prices, and the fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, with synthetic rubber mainly following the cost side [16][18]. 3. Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - LLDPE: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired. The raw material price is stable, but there is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [19][20]. - PP: Propylene is stronger than ethylene. There is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The cost is high, and the demand is weak, so attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [22][23]. 4. Other Chemicals (Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, etc.) - Caustic Soda: It is in a weak shock. The valuation may be too high, and it is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large [26]. - Pulp: It is in a wide - range shock. The price has increased, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially. The price of household paper is expected to fluctuate within a range [31][32][33]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot price is stable with minor fluctuations, and the overall market is in a neutral state [35][36]. 5. Energy - related Futures (Methanol, Urea, etc.) - Methanol: It is short - term strong. Supported by geopolitical factors and the expectation of inventory improvement, but there is a negative feedback risk from MTO above 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [42]. - Urea: It has a short - term correction and is medium - term strong. The agricultural demand expectation is strong, and the callback range is limited [46]. 6. Other Futures (Styrene, Soda Ash, etc.) - Styrene: It is in a short - term shock. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting at high levels [48]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The supply is high, and the demand is tepid, with a neutral market [52]. 7. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving factors [55]. - Propylene: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [56]. 8. PVC - It is in a weak shock. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [64]. 9. Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It has a sharp short - term weakening, but there is still support below [67]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session continues to rise, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to rebound [67]. 10. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may have a short - term strong shock. For the 02 and 04 contracts, positions should be reduced as appropriate. The 2602 contract valuation may be in the range of 1730 - 1780 points under a certain freight rate deduction, and the 2604 contract is in a weak supply - demand balance in the off - season [69][82]. 11. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber: It is in a shock - upward trend. The futures are in general shock, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 72% [85]. - Bottle - chip: It is in a shock - upward trend. The upstream raw material futures are in shock, and the factory quotes are mostly stable with partial downward adjustments [86]. 12. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to short at high levels. The market price is stable, the production end is basically stable, and the downstream demand is rigid [88][89][91]. 13. Pure Benzene - It is in a short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the spot price has a slight change [93][94][95].