国泰君安期货所长早读-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, with Trump threatening Iran and being reported to have listened to military strike plans. This could lead to increased competition for strategic resources [8][20]. - The global economic situation shows mixed signals. For example, the US 12 - month non - farm payrolls increase was less than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased, and the consumer confidence index reached a four - month high [17][19]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by geopolitical factors and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have increased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly. The trend strength is - 1 [13][17]. - Silver: It is approaching a new high. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have risen significantly. The trend strength is - 1 [13][17]. 3.1.2 Copper - The demand expectation has strengthened, and the price has risen. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have increased, and the inventory situation has changed. The trend strength is 1 [13][21]. 3.1.3 Zinc - It is running strongly. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have shown a positive trend, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 1 [13][24]. 3.1.4 Lead - The overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have increased. The trend strength is 0 [13][27]. 3.1.5 Tin - It is oscillating and strengthening. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have risen, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 1 [13][30]. 3.1.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The center of gravity has significantly increased. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have risen, and the inventory situation has changed. The trend strength is 1 [13][33]. - Alumina: Driven by capital risk preference. The price of alumina futures has shown a certain trend, and the supply - demand situation is complex. The trend strength is 0 [13][33]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It follows the price of aluminum. The price trend is related to the aluminum market. The trend strength is 1 [13][33]. 3.1.7 Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: ETF holdings are continuously flowing out, and it is oscillating within a range. The price trend is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [13][35]. - Palladium: It rose sharply and then fell back. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs. The trend strength is 0 [13][35]. 3.1.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it is running with wide - range oscillations. The price of nickel futures has shown significant fluctuations. The trend strength is 0 [13][39]. - Stainless Steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is gambling on Indonesian policies. The price trend is affected by multiple factors. The trend strength is 0 [13][40]. 3.2 Energy - related Commodities 3.2.1 Crude Oil Although not the main focus, geopolitical tensions may affect the supply and price of crude oil, which in turn impacts related products [72]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The short - term price has weakened significantly, but there is still support below. The price and trading volume of fuel oil futures have changed. The trend strength is 0 [134]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session price continued to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to rebound. The trend strength is 0 [134]. 3.3 Chemical Products 3.3.1 PX, PTA, and MEG - PX: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillating market. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences. The price of PX futures has increased, and the supply - demand situation is changing. The trend strength is 1 [70][74]. - PTA: The cost support is relatively strong. The price of PTA futures has risen slightly, and the supply - demand outlook is weakening. The trend strength is 1 [70][75]. - MEG: The trend is strong. The price of MEG futures has increased, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The trend strength is 1 [70][76]. 3.3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It is oscillating in a wide range. The price of rubber futures has shown a certain degree of decline, and the market is affected by raw material prices. The trend strength is 0 [77][78]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is oscillating at a high level. The price of synthetic rubber futures has changed, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [83][85]. 3.3.3 LLDPE and PP - LLDPE: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The price of LLDPE futures has risen slightly, and the market situation is complex. The trend strength is 0 [86][88]. - PP: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a high expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The price of PP futures has risen slightly, and the supply - demand situation is under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [90][91]. 3.3.4 Caustic Soda and PVC - Caustic Soda: It is oscillating weakly. The price of caustic soda futures is facing downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is unfavorable. The trend strength is - 1 [92][94]. - PVC: It is oscillating weakly. The price of PVC futures has declined, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The trend strength is - 1 [131][132]. 3.3.5 Methanol and Urea - Methanol: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The price of methanol futures has risen, and the market is affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors. The trend strength is 0 [106][110]. - Urea: It is experiencing a short - term correction and is expected to be strong in the medium term. The price of urea futures has shown a certain trend, and the supply - demand situation is improving. The trend strength is 0 [112][114]. 3.3.6 Styrene and Pure Benzene - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term. The price of styrene futures has increased slightly, and the market valuation is high. The trend strength is 0 [115][116]. - Pure Benzene: It is oscillating mainly in the short term. The price of pure benzene futures has increased, and the inventory situation has changed. The trend strength is 0 [159][161]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm Oil: Attention should be paid to the implementation of negative news in the MPOB report. The price of palm oil futures has risen, and the market is affected by supply - demand and external factors. The trend strength is 0 [163][164]. - Soybean Oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the price is mainly in a range. The price of soybean oil futures has risen, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [163][164]. 3.4.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean Meal: It is oscillating, waiting for the USDA report. The price of soybean meal futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by US soybean production expectations. The trend strength is 0 [169][171]. - Soybean: It is adjusting and oscillating. The price of soybean futures has shown a certain degree of decline, and the market is affected by multiple factors. The trend strength is 0 [169][171]. 3.4.3 Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn futures has risen slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and policy factors. The trend strength is 0 [172][174]. 3.4.4 Sugar - It is in a narrow - range consolidation. The price of sugar futures has shown a certain trend, and the supply - demand situation is complex. The trend strength is 0 [176][178]. 3.4.5 Cotton - It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The price of cotton futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and external factors. The trend strength is 0 [181][182]. 3.4.6 Eggs - The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened. The price of egg futures has changed, and the market is affected by supply - demand and feed prices. The trend strength is 0 [185][186]. 3.4.7 Hogs - There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of hog futures has shown a certain trend, and the market is affected by supply - demand and consumption factors. The trend strength is - 1 [188][189]. 3.4.8 Peanuts - It is oscillating. The price of peanut futures has declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and spot prices. The trend strength is 0 [192][194]. 3.5 Others 3.5.1 Alumina - The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the systematic risk - preference rotation in the non - ferrous sector is still supporting the AO market. It is recommended to find selling points at high prices [9][10]. 3.5.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may oscillate strongly in the short term. Consider reducing long positions in the 02 contract and short positions in the 04 contract. The supply - demand situation of shipping capacity is changing, and the market is affected by export policies [136][146]. 3.5.3 Short - fiber and Bottle - grade PET - They are oscillating strongly. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - grade PET futures have risen, and the market is affected by supply - demand and raw material prices. The trend strength is 0 [151][152]. 3.5.4 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to go short at high prices. The price of offset printing paper futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. The trend strength is - 1 [154][155]. 3.5.5 Soda Ash - The spot market has changed little. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [119][120]. 3.5.6 LPG and Propylene - LPG: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving forces. The price of LPG futures has risen, and the market is affected by supply - demand and policy factors. The trend strength is 0 [122][123]. - Propylene: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. The price of propylene futures has risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The trend strength is 0 [123][128].