国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260112

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on January 12, 2026, covering multiple black - series commodities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report's Core View - For iron ore, the valuation is high, so be cautious about chasing up [2][4] - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to compress [2][7] - For ferrosilicon, market sentiment has subsided, and the futures price fluctuates widely; for silicomanganese, overseas miners' quotes have increased, and the futures price also fluctuates widely [2][11] - For coke and coking coal, events are fermenting, and prices are oscillating at high levels [2][14][15] - For logs, prices fluctuate repeatedly [2][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The closing price of the futures contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.18%. Imported ore prices generally increased slightly, and the difference between some varieties changed. The trend strength is 0 [4] - News: In December 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: According to the weekly data on January 8, rebar production increased by 2.820,000 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.000,000 tons; rebar inventory increased by 16.080,000 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.830,000 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 25.480,000 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 2.430,000 tons. The trend strength of both is 0 [8][9] - News: In late December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased; in mid - December 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased; the government implemented export license management for some steel products; from January to October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices and trading volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The trend strength of both is 0 [11] - News: On January 9, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions changed; overseas miners raised their quotes for February 2026; as of January 9, the total manganese ore inventory decreased [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The closing price of the coking coal JM2605 contract was 1195.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the closing price of the coke J2605 contract was 1748 yuan/ton, down 1.0%. The trend strength of both is 0 [15] - News: On January 9, the metallurgical coal index changed; the daily output of coking coal mines increased, with new production resumptions and a small number of new shutdowns [15] Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed. The prices of most log spot products remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] - News: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of enterprises at the end of 2025 [22]