高盛闭门会-2026年G10利率展望-通缩缓解降低了久期风险

Investment Rating - The report indicates a consensus nearing the end of the rate cut cycle, with potential shifts towards a rate hike cycle, particularly in the G10 economies [1][2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the deflationary process will continue until 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates twice this year [1][2]. - The Bank of England is projected to cut rates three times this year, while the U.S. is expected to lower rates twice, aligning closely with market pricing [3]. - The report highlights that the U.S. 10-year benchmark rate is expected to stabilize around 4.2%, with a tendency for the yield curve to steepen [4][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecasts - The report suggests that the current economic predictions align closely with actual conditions in most economies, with policy rate forecasts slightly below market expectations [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the deflationary trend is most pronounced in the U.S., with other economies like the UK and Europe facing challenges in meeting inflation targets [2][3]. Interest Rate Projections - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain around 4.2%, while German and UK yields are projected to rise to 3.25% and 4%, respectively [4][5]. - Japan's 10-year bond yield is expected to remain pessimistic at 2%, with a flattening yield curve indicating significant selling pressure [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury's issuance strategy is focused on short-term bonds, with a projected reduction in net coupon bond supply by approximately $500 billion compared to last year [8]. - In the UK, issuance demand is expected to consolidate, while the European market remains stable with increased supply from Germany offset by other regions [9]. Long-term Debt and AI Capital Expenditure - There is a noted shift towards short-term bonds in the U.S., UK, and Japan, with AI capital expenditure potentially increasing sensitivity to long-term yield changes [10]. - The report indicates that the market will need to gradually digest the existing long-term debt, with evidence suggesting a rising reliance on debt financing by the private sector [10]. Investment Strategies - The report suggests that the current environment is favorable for long-term spread trades, with strong economic activity and declining inflation [11]. - It recommends considering options to hedge directional risks and maintaining short-term positions rather than long positions [11].