招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price is expected to rise steadily, and it is recommended to go long; the silver market has strong speculative sentiment and large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to buy on dips due to the tight supply of copper mines and the narrowing of the domestic spot discount [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term due to the combination of positive and negative factors [1]. - Alumina is expected to show weak volatility as the market is in a state of supply surplus [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be supported and are likely to rise rather than fall [2]. - Polysilicon is expected to have a deep decline in the market, but there is still an expectation of fundamental improvement [2]. - Tin is recommended to be bought on dips due to the tight supply and the decline of global visible inventory [2][3]. - For black and agricultural products: - Soybean meal is expected to be volatile in the short term and needs to find a bottom in the medium term [4]. - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [4]. - Oils are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation [4]. - Sugar is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - Cotton is recommended to wait and see within the price range of 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [5]. - Eggs and pork futures prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - Apples are recommended to wait and see [5]. - For energy and chemical products: - LLDPE is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [6][7]. - PVC is recommended to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 09 contract [7]. - PTA is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the processing fee of the 05 contract [7]. - Rubber is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - Glass is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. - PP is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and oscillate in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short on highs [8]. - MEG is recommended to go short on highs [8]. - Crude oil is recommended to be used as a short - side allocation, and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [8]. - Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term and it is recommended to go long on lows or conduct reverse spreads in the second quarter [8]. - Soda ash is recommended to be short - side allocated [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: - Market performance: On Friday, precious metal prices rebounded, with the London gold price reaching $4500 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The non - farm payroll data was mixed. The domestic gold ETF had a small inflow of 0.3 tons, and the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2.3 tons to 1129.3 tons [1]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go long as the gold price is rising steadily [1]. - Silver: - Market performance: The London silver price was close to $80 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 85.2 tons to 13675.9 tons, and the iShares silver ETF position increased by 93 tons to 16308 tons [1]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to strong speculative sentiment and large fluctuations [1]. Basic Metals - Copper: - Market performance: Copper prices continued to strengthen on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: Despite the stronger US dollar index, copper prices still rose. The supply of copper mines remained tight, and the domestic spot discount narrowed [1]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 2.55% to 24330 yuan/ton on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [1]. - Alumina: - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.70% to 2843 yuan/ton on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to show weak volatility [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8535 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decline of 4.96% [2]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces remained the same as last week. The social inventory increased slightly, and the demand side was affected by anti - monopoly events in the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries [2]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: - Market performance: LC2605 closed at 143,420 yuan/ton, down 1.9% [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased slightly in the short term, but the demand for lithium - battery materials decreased in January. The inventory is expected to increase in Q1 [2]. - Trading strategy: Prices are expected to be supported and are likely to rise rather than fall [2]. - Polysilicon: - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 51330 yuan/ton, down 4.31% from the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: The market was affected by regulatory interviews and anti - monopoly events. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand for some downstream products decreased [2]. - Trading strategy: There is an expectation of fundamental improvement, but the market is expected to have a deep decline [2]. - Tin: - Market performance: Tin prices continued to strengthen on Friday [2][3]. - Fundamentals: The supply was tight, and the global visible inventory decreased by 858 tons on a weekly basis [2][3]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. Black and Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: - Market performance: CBOT soybeans rose slightly last Friday, and the market was quiet before the USDA report [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term, and the global supply - demand pattern was expected to be loose [4]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be volatile in the short term and needs to find a bottom in the medium term [4]. - Corn: - Market performance: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices rose slightly [4]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and the demand from downstream feed and processing enterprises was weakening [4]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [4]. - Oils: - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose slightly last Friday [4]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia decreased seasonally in December, but the export also decreased, and the inventory was expected to rise [4]. - Trading strategy: Oils are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation [4]. - Sugar: - Market performance: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures both rose last week [4]. - Fundamentals: International raw sugar was under pressure from Indian production, and the domestic sugar market had slow sales progress [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - Cotton: - Market performance: ICE US cotton futures oscillated narrowly, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated downward [5]. - Fundamentals: The export of Brazilian cotton and the import of Vietnamese cotton increased in December 2025. The domestic cotton commercial inventory increased [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see within the price range of 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [5]. - Eggs: - Market performance: Egg futures prices continued to rebound, and spot prices rose in some areas [5]. - Fundamentals: The laying - hen inventory decreased, and the demand increased due to the Spring Festival stocking [5]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [5]. - Pork: - Market performance: Pork futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose over the weekend [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply in January is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end, and the demand will gradually increase at the end of the month [5]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger [5]. - Apples: - Market performance: The main contract rose 6.24% last week [5]. - Fundamentals: The total apple production decreased, the quality was poor, and the sales pressure was high [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Energy and Chemical Products - LLDPE: - Market performance: The main contract rebounded slightly on Friday [6]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and the demand was weak in the agricultural film season [6]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [6][7]. - PVC: - Market performance: V05 closed at 4777, down 1.8% [7]. - Fundamentals: Affected by the reduction of export tax rebates, the supply was high, and the demand decreased seasonally. The inventory was at a high level [7]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 09 contract [7]. - PTA: - Market performance: The PX CFR China price was $892 per ton, and the PTA East - China spot price was 5035 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX and PTA was at a high level, and the demand from downstream polyester factories decreased [7]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the processing fee of the 05 contract [7]. - Rubber: - Market performance: RU2605 oscillated weakly and closed at 16030 yuan/ton, down 0.96% [7]. - Fundamentals: The raw - material prices were supported, but the downstream demand weakened, and the inventory increased seasonally [7]. - Trading strategy: Hold short positions cautiously [7]. - Glass: - Market performance: fg05 closed at 1125, down 1.6% [7]. - Fundamentals: Production cuts increased, sales improved, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The demand from the real - estate market was weak [7]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. - PP: - Market performance: The main contract rebounded slightly on Friday [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased slightly, and the export window opened. The downstream demand increased [8]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and oscillate in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short on highs [8]. - MEG: - Market performance: The East - China spot price was 3697 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply was at a high level, and the demand from the polyester industry decreased. The inventory is expected to increase in the medium term [8]. - Trading strategy: Go short on highs [8]. - Crude Oil: - Market performance: Oil prices strengthened last week due to geopolitical risks [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory was above the five - year average [8]. - Trading strategy: Use as a short - side allocation and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [8]. - Styrene: - Market performance: The main contract rebounded slightly yesterday [8]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene was at a relatively high level, and the demand was in the off - season [8]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to oscillate in the short term and it is recommended to go long on lows or conduct reverse spreads in the second quarter [8]. - Soda Ash: - Market performance: sa05 closed at 1225, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry decreased. The inventory was at a high level [9]. - Trading strategy: Short - side allocation is recommended [9].