棕榈油：关注MPOB报告利空落地情况，豆油：美豆动能有限，单边区间为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, attention should be paid to the situation of negative impacts from the MPOB report being realized [1] - For soybean oil, the momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the unilateral movement will be mainly within a range [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,682 yuan/ton (up 0.81% during the day, down 0.25% at night), soybean oil主力 at 7,994 yuan/ton (up 0.63% during the day, down 0.38% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,042 yuan/ton (up 0.96% during the day, down 0.71% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,038 ringgit/ton (down 0.12%), and the CBOT soybean oil主力 at 49.66 cents/pound (up 0.42%) [1] - Trading and Positions: Palm oil主力 had 366,106 lots traded yesterday (a decrease of 264,124 lots), with a position of 400,553 lots (an increase of 6,659 lots); soybean oil主力 had 203,820 lots traded (a decrease of 54,998 lots), with a position of 681,661 lots (an increase of 16,768 lots); rapeseed oil主力 had 199,123 lots traded (a decrease of 110,870 lots), with a position of 245,121 lots (a decrease of 3,461 lots) [1] - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton (a price change of 60 yuan), the first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton (a price change of 30 yuan), the fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (a price change of 100 yuan), and the FOB offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,025 US dollars/ton (a price change of 20 US dollars) [1] - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 2 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 536 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 908 yuan/ton [1] - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 360 yuan/ton (compared to 344 yuan/ton the day before), the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 688 yuan/ton (compared to - 668 yuan/ton the day before), the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 112 yuan/ton (unchanged), the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 156 yuan/ton (compared to 130 yuan/ton the day before), and the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 21 yuan/ton (compared to 13 yuan/ton the day before) [1] Macro and Industry News - On January 10, 2026, a 7.1 - magnitude earthquake occurred in the sea near North Sulawesi Province, Indonesia [2] - Analysts on average expect the US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.229 billion bushels, with an estimated range between 4.176 - 4.3 billion bushels, compared to the USDA's previous estimate of 4.253 billion bushels in November [3][4] - The State Council executive meeting pointed out the need to strengthen the coordination and linkage between fiscal and financial policies, and optimize loan discount policies for service - sector businesses and individual consumer loans [4] - In the second week of 2026 (from January 3 to January 9), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons compared to the previous week, and 61,100 tons lower than the estimated crushing volume. The actual operating rate was 48.58% [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0 [5]