橡胶：宽幅震荡20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple raw material prices such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black have increased, leading to a significant rise in the overall production cost of semi - steel tires. As a result, the theoretical profit of semi - steel tire products has declined, but it remains in the profitable range [5]. - In 2025, the export market of semi - steel tires faced pressure, with a slowdown in growth compared to the previous two years. In 2026, with strong raw material prices and uncertain demand, more companies are expected to join promotional activities to boost sales. New production capacities will continue to be released, intensifying price competition and putting pressure on industry profits [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - Price and Volume Changes: The daily closing price of the rubber futures main contract was 16,030 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume was 343,450 lots, a decrease of 12,740 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 197,718 lots, an increase of 1,250 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipt and Net Short Position: The warehouse receipt quantity was 104,490 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 43,945 lots, an increase of 3,455 lots [2]. 3.2 Spread Data - Basis: The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 330 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 980 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. - Monthly Spread: The spread of RU05 - RU09 was 25 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Foreign Quotes: The quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 20, 20, 15, and 20 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. - Substitute Products: The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton each [2]. - Qingdao Import Market: The prices of Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry News - Raw Material Price Changes: As of January 8, the price of Thai 20 mixed standard rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, up 4.87% month - on - month and down 5.57% year - on - year. The price of carbon black was about 6,200 yuan/ton, up 5.08% month - on - month and down 4.62% year - on - year. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as styrene - butadiene rubber and cis - butadiene rubber increased significantly, and some auxiliary products also rose to varying degrees [5]. - Cost and Profit of Semi - steel Tires: As of January 8, the raw material cost index of semi - steel tires was 13,032.80, up 5.13% month - on - month. The theoretical profit of semi - steel tire products decreased, with the profit of the mid - range brand 205/55R16 product at 0.36 yuan/kg, down 1.09 yuan/kg month - on - month [5].