尿素：短期回调，中期偏强

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - In the short term, the urea price is expected to correct due to downstream resistance and weakening spot trading, but the correction amplitude is limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations, and it remains bullish in the medium term [4]. - The demand - side drive is neutral - slightly strong due to continuous procurement by reserves and the grass - roots level, and whether the drive can go further up depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking [4]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton (policy pressure line), and the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton due to strong agricultural demand expectations in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,777 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,779 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 107,441 lots, the position volume of the 05 contract was 232,407 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,850 tons, and the turnover was 382.293 million yuan. The Shandong regional basis was - 27, the UR05 - UR09 spread was 23 [2]. - Spot Market: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained unchanged, such as Henan Xinlianxin at 1,770 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing at 1,740 yuan/ton. The price of Yankuang Xinjiang increased by 10 to 1,320 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 15 to 1,610 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions were 1,750 yuan/ton and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively, with the Shandong price down 10 [2]. - Supply - side Indicators: The operating rate was 85.19%, up 0.47 percentage points, and the daily output was 200,580 tons, up 1,100 tons [2]. 2. Industry News - On January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 0.003 million tons or 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory in some provinces decreased, including Henan, Heilongjiang, etc., while in some provinces increased, such as Anhui, Hainan, etc. [3] - The urea trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]