螺纹钢：原料强于成材，钢厂利润延续压缩

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - For both rebar and hot-rolled coil, raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to be compressed [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Output: On January 8th, steel output increased, with rebar up 2.82 tons, hot-rolled coil up 1 ton, and the total of five major varieties up 3.41 tons [3]. - Inventory: Total inventory of rebar increased by 16.08 tons, while that of hot-rolled coil decreased by 2.83 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 21.77 tons. In late December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a decrease of 27 million tons or 3.6% month-on-month [3][4]. - Apparent Demand: Apparent demand decreased, with rebar down 25.48 tons, hot-rolled coil down 2.43 tons, and the total down 44.2 tons [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In mid-December 2025, key steel enterprises' daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel all decreased. Their steel inventory increased compared to the previous ten-day period, the beginning of the year, the same period last month, and the same period last year [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4]. - In October 2025, China's imported steel volume and average price both decreased. From January to October, the cumulative imported steel volume decreased by 68.0 million tons or 11.9% year-on-year [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].