铜：需求预期增强，价格上涨

Report Investment Rating - The copper trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [3]. Core View - The demand expectation for copper is strengthening, leading to price increases [1]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,410 with a daily increase of 0.19%, and the night - session closing price was 102,220 with a night - session increase of 0.80%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,966 with a daily increase of 2.07% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 787,270, a decrease of 21,606 from the previous day, and the open interest was 681,641, a decrease of 9,196. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 27,067, a decrease of 8,225, and the open interest was 325,000, an increase of 783 [1]. - Futures Inventory: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 111,216, an increase of 2,531, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,975, a decrease of 2,100. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 17.00%, a decrease of 1.38% [1]. - Spreads: The LME Copper spread increased by 25.19 to 41.94. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price decreased by 500 to 88,100. The spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 20 to - 45 [1]. Macro and Industry News - Macro News: In January, the US Michigan consumer confidence reached a four - month high, and inflation expectations were relatively stable. In December, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [1]. - Industry News: The Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter produced its first batch of anode copper, with an expected production of 380,000 - 420,000 tons of mineral copper in 2026. Codelco's copper production in 2025 was 1.332 million tons, slightly higher than in 2024. By 2040, global copper demand is expected to increase significantly driven by AI and the defense sector. Pan Pacific Copper proposed a record - high copper premium of $330 per ton for Japanese domestic customers in 2026 [1][3].