2026/1/12：申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that in 2026, supply - side reform will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. The RMB has been appreciating against the US dollar since December, and with the weakening of the US dollar in the interest - rate cut cycle, overseas funds are expected to flow back, leading to the revaluation of Chinese assets. Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and steady upward trend of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industrial drive" [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4764.80, 4753.20, 4743.80, and 4702.00 respectively, with increases of 32.00, 32.80, 33.60, and 36.80. The trading volumes were 39087.00, 6304.00, 85400.00, and 17551.00, and the open interest changes were - 1508.00, 2122.00, 6540.00, and 3317.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3133.00, 3132.80, 3134.80, and 3123.20 respectively, with increases of 17.40, 18.40, 19.20, and 17.40. The trading volumes were 12774.00, 2091.00, 33032.00, and 5808.00, and the open interest changes were 56.00, 578.00, 216.00, and 788.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 8088.20, 8058.20, 8037.80, and 7865.60 respectively, with increases of 206.60, 218.60, 233.40, and 230.20. The trading volumes were 42842.00, 11442.00, 110023.00, and 24589.00, and the open interest changes were 793.00, 3543.00, 15856.00, and 4181.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 8160.20, 8098.80, 8048.40, and 7824.20 respectively, with increases of 219.20, 227.60, 239.60, and 241.20. The trading volumes were 54173.00, 12796.00, 149124.00, and 31696.00, and the open interest changes were 325.00, 3555.00, 10585.00, and 4756.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 11.60, - 0.20, - 30.00, and - 61.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 11.60, - 0.80, - 40.20, and - 73.60 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4758.92, 3134.32, 7651.20, and 8129.18 respectively, with increases of 0.45, 0.39, 2.49, and 1.98. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 254.69, 60.15, 251.85, and 381.04, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6687.89, 1777.40, 5046.90, and 7053.23 [1] - Industry Indexes: Different industries in the CSI 300 had different increases or decreases. For example, the energy, raw materials, and industrial sectors had increases of 1.15%, 1.51%, and 0.53% respectively, while the real - estate and finance sector had a decrease of - 0.51% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against the CSI 300 were 5.88, - 5.72, - 15.12, and - 56.92 respectively, compared with the previous values of 0.15, - 11.45, - 19.25, and - 64.45 [1] - IH Contracts: The basis of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were - 1.32, - 1.52, 0.48, and - 11.12 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 0.46, - 1.26, 0.34, and - 8.86 [1] - IC Contracts: The basis of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were 31.51, 1.51, - 18.89, and - 191.09 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 5.14, - 45.34, - 80.14, and - 253.54 [1] - IM Contracts: The basis of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were 31.02, - 30.38, - 80.78, and - 304.98 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 17.59, - 91.19, - 150.99, and - 374.39 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4120.43, 14120.15, 8672.11, and 3327.81 respectively, with increases of 0.92%, 1.15%, 1.26%, and 0.77% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26231.79, 51117.26, 6966.28, and 25261.64 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, - 1.63%, 0.65%, and 0.53% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The vice - chairman of the CSRC stated that efforts will be made to improve the institutional environment for long - term investment, enhance services for technology - innovation enterprises, and strengthen regulatory enforcement [2] - This week, important events include the release of China's December 2025 foreign trade data, US CPI and PPI data, and the possible announcement of a tariff ruling by the US Supreme Court [2] - The National Commerce Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for the national commerce system in 2026, such as boosting consumption and promoting trade innovation [2] - The Hong Kong SAR government's financial secretary said that the new budget will be released on February 25, with the operating account expected to return to surplus and the capital account still in deficit [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Fund companies and sales institutions received a notice on the implementation of regulations on fund sales fees, with three key points attracting attention [2] - China's public REITs market had a good start in the first trading week of 2026 [2] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is at a historical turning point due to the cancellation of export tax - rebates and the end of industry self - regulation, which may lead to a reconstruction of the industry's valuation system [2] 3.7 Stock Index Viewpoint - US stock indexes rose, and the previous trading day saw an increase in the A - share market, with the media sector leading the rise and the banking sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 3.15 trillion yuan [2] - On January 8, the margin trading balance increased by 15.944 billion yuan to 2.603155 trillion yuan [2]