油脂周报：宏观情绪回暖，油脂有所反弹-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall edible oils in China showed a volatile trend this week. The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils continued to decline slightly, but the overall inventory was still sufficient [4]. - Malaysian palm oil has entered the production - reduction period, with expected continuous production and inventory reduction in the later stage, but the inventory - reduction speed is slow, and high inventory may persist [4][28]. - Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but the overall inventory is not expected to be tight. There are uncertainties in subsequent customs policies, and short - term performance is relatively good, but there are no prominent contradictions currently [4][23][28]. - Sino - Canadian relations show signs of improvement. Importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable at current prices. However, even if relations ease, it will take time for rapeseed to arrive at ports. In the short term, the near - month rapeseed oil contracts have both pressure and support [4][26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil: Estimated that the production in December may drop to 1.76 million tons, exports may slightly increase to 1.25 million tons, and inventory may accumulate to nearly 3 million tons. High inventory will make subsequent inventory reduction slow, and the stock - to - sales ratio has increased significantly. The RBD price is around $1020, showing a volatile downward trend, and the decline space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report on Monday [5][8]. - Indonesian Palm Oil: The CPO spot price remains high at around $850, and the inventory is continuously low, with a firm price. Due to financial constraints, Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel mission and may confiscate an additional 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations this year, causing palm oil prices to rise recently [8]. - Indian Palm Oil: The market expects India's edible oil imports to increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with palm oil imports increasing from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons. It is estimated that India will import only 500,000 tons of palm oil in December, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports will increase significantly. The international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging, which is conducive to increased palm oil procurement to some extent [14]. Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 726,700 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The basis is stable. The origin's quotation is stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, but domestic procurement enthusiasm is low. It is expected that inventory reduction will start in December, but the speed will be slow [17]. - Soybean Oil: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.73%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. The peak of soybean arrivals in China has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease after October, but the overall inventory will not be tight [23]. - Rapeseed Oil: As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The 3 - 5 spread has weakened. Sino - Canadian relations are improving, and importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable. In the long - term, rapeseed oil is bearish, but in the short - term, the near - month contracts have support at the bottom and pressure at the top [26]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral Strategy: Edible oils are expected to continue to rebound in the short - term, but the rebound height may be limited, and the overall trend may be volatile. For palm oil, consider short - selling at the upper limit of the range. Soybean oil lacks driving factors and may follow the overall trend of edible oils. Rapeseed oil's core issue lies in policy changes, so it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Wait and see [30]. - Options Strategy: Wait and see [30]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [35][36][37]. - Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Demand: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [40][41][43]. - International Soybean Oil Market: Data on NOPA's U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, Brazilian and Argentine soybean crushing volumes and soybean oil inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [45]. - Indian Edible Oil Supply and Demand: Data on India's monthly edible oil consumption, imports, and port inventory are presented, including data on palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports, showing trends over multiple years [49][50][52]. - Domestic Edible Oil Import Profit: Data on the import profit of European rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil, and 24 - degree palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [61][62][63]. - Domestic Soybean Oil Supply and Demand: Data on domestic soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, and trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [65]. - Domestic Palm Oil Supply and Demand: Data on domestic palm oil monthly import volume, monthly sales volume, and weekly trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [67]. - Domestic Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand: Data on domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil import volume, and monthly consumption are presented, showing trends over multiple years [69]. - Domestic Edible Oil Spot Basis: Data on the spot basis of first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic triple - refined rapeseed oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [71][72][73]. - Domestic Edible Oil Commercial Inventory: Data on domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total edible oil commercial inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [75][77][79].