宝城期货动力煤早报（2026年1月12日）-20260112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillation". The core logic is that in the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices showed a slight upward trend. The marginal recovery of coal production is limited, and the supply contraction expectation is enhanced due to the approaching Spring Festival. Meanwhile, the coal demand in coastal cities has improved, and the inventory in Bohai Rim ports has decreased week - on - week, leading to an improvement in the supply - demand pattern and a slight upward price [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Price and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is the improvement of power coal demand and a slight increase in port coal prices [1]. Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. Coal production has a limited marginal recovery, and the supply contraction expectation is strengthened as the Spring Festival approaches. The decrease in domestic temperature has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities. As of January 8, the total coal inventory in 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and prices have stopped falling and risen slightly [5].