燃油基本面弱势，地缘风险成最大利多驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Venezuela and Iran's geopolitical disturbances continue, causing short - term disruptions to oil exports and production due to US strategies, leading to increased volatility in fuel oil prices. Attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. The fundamental situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weakly stable in Q1. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand lacks specific driving factors [4]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong. Geopolitical risks should be watched out for, and chasing up is not recommended. Opportunities for the FU59 positive spread should be noted, and options should be on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis - Geopolitical factors in Venezuela and Iran disrupt short - term oil exports and production. High - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are weak in Q1. Russian exports are slightly affected, Mexican high - sulfur exports are rising, and low - sulfur supply is recovering [4]. - In terms of demand, the issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 weakens the support for high - sulfur feedstock. Low - sulfur supply has increased recently [4]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Short - term oscillation with an upward bias, beware of geopolitical risks, and avoid chasing up [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to FU59 positive spread opportunities [5]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Supply Side - Russia: Energy facilities are under continuous attack, but overall exports are slightly affected. Refined oil exports are rising, and the overall refining capacity increased in December. High - sulfur fuel oil exports decreased in January [10]. - Mexico: High - sulfur exports are rising due to the increase in Pemex processing volume. However, medium - term exports are expected to decline [13]. - Iran: The internal situation is escalating. Oil exports and high - sulfur fuel oil exports decreased in December. Iraq plans to supply over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil from January to June 2026 [16]. - Nigeria: The Dangote refinery's gasoline unit is under maintenance, with stable low - sulfur supply. Low - sulfur tenders are continuously issued [25]. - Middle East: There is still a short - term supply gap for low - sulfur fuel oil. The Al - Zour refinery's CDU units have restarted, but secondary units have no restart updates [28]. - Sudan: Civil war disrupts oil supply and exports. The energy supply is expected to gradually recover, and new oil tenders have been issued [31]. - Pan - Singapore Region: The expected excess supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is gradually decreasing as RFCC unit operations increase [34]. - Demand Side - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Feedstock demand: The issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 weakens the support for high - sulfur feedstock, and Chinese imports decreased in December [19]. - Marine fuel demand: It is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers [22]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - There is no specific driving factor. Marine fuel demand is stable, and the power - generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [37]. - High - sulfur marine fuel demand accounts for an increasing proportion, mainly due to the Red Sea suspension and the growth in the number of ships with desulfurization towers [40]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Price and Spread - Fuel oil spot prices and various spreads (such as high - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - period spreads, low - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - variety spreads, etc.) are presented in graphical form, but specific numerical analyses are not provided in the text [44][47][50]. - Inventory - Inventory data for fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, the US, Fujeirah, and Japan are presented in graphical form, but no detailed text analysis is provided [70]. - Inventory data for gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf are also presented graphically [75][78].