中国成品油周报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic refined oil market is expected to continue its weak pattern next week, with both gasoline and diesel showing a supply - demand imbalance, and gasoline being relatively better due to stocking expectations [7] Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis Market Overview - Supply: The national refinery operating rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 70.6% this week. The operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased slightly. Major refineries increased gasoline production, with gasoline output rising and diesel output falling slightly. Local refinery output of both gasoline and diesel decreased, and the diesel - gasoline ratio rose to 1.49 [6][37][46] - Demand: The weekly average sales - to - production ratio of Shandong refineries for both gasoline and diesel declined, with gasoline at 97% and diesel at 95% [6] - Inventory: Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline inventory was 1095 tons, up 22 tons (+2.1%), and diesel inventory was 1254 tons, up 13 tons (+1.1%). Local refinery inventories increased, while social inventories decreased [6][77] Market Outlook - Supply: The operating rate of major refineries is expected to increase, while that of local refineries and their output are expected to continue to decline, but the decline will narrow. Overall domestic output is expected to decrease [7] - Demand: Demand will remain weak. Gasoline terminal demand will not improve, and diesel demand will continue to decline [7] - Inventory: Shandong independent refinery gasoline inventory will face upward pressure, and diesel inventory is also expected to increase [7] Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking Price - Gasoline and diesel market prices have declined. For example, the gasoline market price on January 8, 2026, was 7253 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/week and 1159 yuan/year. The diesel market price was 5992 yuan/ton, down 184 yuan/week and 1004 yuan/year [13] Profit - Major refinery refining profit was 677.46 yuan/ton, up 1.85% week - on - week. The weekly average profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 368.79 yuan/ton, up 0.13% week - on - week and 71.18% year - on - year [19] Supply - Operating Rate: The national refinery operating rate increased to 70.6%. Major refinery operating rates increased, while independent and Shandong local refinery operating rates decreased [36][37] - Maintenance Plan: As of January 9, 2026, the total maintenance capacity was 57 million tons/year, and Shenchi Chemical started full - plant maintenance [42] - Output: Major refineries increased gasoline production, while local refineries' output of both gasoline and diesel decreased. The diesel - gasoline ratio increased [44][46] Sales - The weekly average sales - to - production ratio of Shandong refineries for both gasoline and diesel declined. The market sentiment was negative, and the increase in sales - to - production ratio was limited [50][54] Demand - Gasoline: The consumption index is mainly used for reference. The demand is affected by factors such as urban congestion index, flight schedules, and service industry PMI [59][60] - Diesel: The demand is related to manufacturing PMI, cement and asphalt shipments, steel consumption, and express delivery volume [70][71] Inventory - Commercial inventories of gasoline and diesel increased. Local refinery inventories increased, and social inventories decreased. Next week, Shandong independent refinery gasoline and diesel inventories are expected to increase [73][77]