首席点评：资本市场改革新部署

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [3][11] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with the price centers of silver and platinum likely to rise steadily [2][19] - The price of copper is affected by market sentiment in the short term, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit [3][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chief Comment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will improve the long - term capital investment system, enhance service for science and technology innovation enterprises, and strengthen regulatory law enforcement [1] - The US may lift additional sanctions on Venezuela to promote oil exports [1] Key Varieties - Precious Metals: The long - term upward trend is expected to continue. Gold is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases. Silver and platinum are also driven by supply - demand gaps in addition to macro factors [2] - Stock Index: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Supply - side reform will push up commodity prices and drive up resource - based stocks. Overseas funds are expected to flow back [3] - Copper: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment [3] Variety Views | Variety | Bias | | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IF) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IC) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IM) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TF) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TS) | Bullish | | Crude Oil | Bearish | | Methanol | Bearish | | Rubber | Bullish | | Rebar | Bullish | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Bullish | | Iron Ore | Bullish | | Coking Coal | Bullish | | Coke | Bullish | | Silicomanganese | Bullish | | Ferrosilicon | Bullish | | Gold | Bullish | | Silver | Bullish | | Copper | Bullish | | Aluminum | Bullish | | Lithium Carbonate | Bullish | | Cotton | Bullish | | Sugar | Bullish | | Apple | Bearish | | Corn | Bullish | | Container Shipping to Europe | Bearish | [5] Main News Concerns on the Day - International News: The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has completely disappeared. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected [6] - Domestic News: The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination [7] - Industry News: Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled, and the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be adjusted [8] Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, the European STOXX 50 rose 1.39%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.24% from January 8th to January 9th [10] Morning Comments on Main Varieties - Financial: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Treasury bond futures are generally weak due to the strong market risk appetite [11][12][13] - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors. Methanol is mainly affected by Iranian supply. The upward momentum of polyolefins may slow down after continuous rebounds [14][15][17] - Metals: Precious metals are expected to rise in the long term. Copper prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term. Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors and downstream demand [19][20][22] - Black Metals: The short - term trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be strong. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upward [25][26] - Agricultural Products: Protein meal prices are under pressure. Palm oil prices are affected by production concerns. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29][30] - Shipping Index: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe may enter a downward channel in mid - January [32]