宝城期货煤焦早报（2026年1月12日）-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory and bullish due to supply disturbances and a low - level rebound [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory and bullish due to improved cost support and a low - level rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Analysis of Coking Coal - As of the week of January 9, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 734,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons and 69,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The daily average combined output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons. After New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Although the short - term fundamentals are not significantly improved, positive drivers such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage replenishment expectations, and Spring Festival coal mine production reduction expectations are emerging, driving the low - level rebound of coking coal futures [5]. 3.2 Price and Market Analysis of Coke - As of the week of January 9, the daily average combined output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons; the daily average output of hot metal from 247 downstream steel mills was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons. This week, downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production, but the resumption speed is slow. The improvement of coke fundamentals is limited, and the relatively positive factor lies in the strong supply - side expectations of upstream coking coal. Although the fundamentals of coke itself are still weak, the upward drivers such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are emerging after the new year, driving the low - level rebound of coke futures [6].