玻璃：短期资金扰动尝试逢高做空

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The glass market is affected by short - term factors such as mid - stream inventory transfer, coal speculation, and sporadic production line shutdowns, but the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The inventory problem will still be prominent before and after the Spring Festival. The glass price is expected to run weakly, and investors are advised to look for opportunities to short at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, the glass futures rebounded strongly. The market focused on production line shutdowns around New Year's Day, a 1.8 - million - weight - box reduction in national inventory, and coal - related capital speculation. Supply decreased with two production lines cold - repaired, and the daily melting volume dropped below 150,000 tons. There was an arbitrage space for spot - futures traders. Demand saw an increase in speculative demand, and the floating glass factory inventory was transferred to the mid - stream. The coal speculation in the soda ash market was overbought, and manufacturers actively hedged. After the market sentiment fades, the price will run weakly. Technically, the short - side power is dominant and strengthening [3] - Operation Strategy: Short at high prices [3][4] 02 and 03 Market Review - Spot Price: As of January 9, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,020 yuan/ton (+20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (+10) in East China [11] - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,144 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan for the week [11] - Price Difference: As of January 9, the soda ash - glass price difference was 84 yuan/ton (-38). Last Friday, the glass 05 contract basis was - 84 yuan/ton (-17), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 94 yuan/ton (+10) [12][15] 04 Profit - Natural Gas Process: Cost was 1,569 yuan/ton (+2), and gross profit was - 389 yuan/ton (+8) - Coal - Gas Process: Cost was 1,170 yuan/ton (+9), and gross profit was - 150 yuan/ton (+11) - Petroleum Coke Process: Cost was 1,110 yuan/ton (+2), and gross profit was - 50 yuan/ton (-2) - Fuel Price: On January 9, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 4.31 yuan/m³, the CIF price of 3% sulfur shot coke from the US was 185 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 595 yuan/ton [19] 05 Supply - Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 149,553.5 tons/day (-1,520). There were 214 production lines in operation, and two production lines were cold - repaired last week [21] 06 Inventory - As of January 9, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million). Inventory decreased in all regions, with significant drops in North China, South China, and Shahe [24][25] 07 Deep - processing - On January 18, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 145% (+25%). On January 9, the LOW - E glass开工率 was 73.8% (+29.7%). In mid - December, the order days of glass deep - processing decreased to 8.6 days (-1.1) [29] 08 and 09 Demand - Automobile: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 173,000 and year - on - year increase of 95,000), and sales were 3.429 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 107,000 and year - on - year increase of 113,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [38] - Real Estate: In November, real estate completion area was 45.9293 million m² (year - on - year decrease of 25%), new construction area was 43.9531 million m² (-28%), construction area was 31.2717 million m² (-42%), and commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million m² (-18%). From December 28 to January 4, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.74 million square meters (month - on - month decrease of 20% and year - on - year decrease of 9%). In November, real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan (year - on - year decrease of 31%) [43] 10 Soda Ash Price - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash remained unchanged in North, East, and Central China, and was 1,425 yuan/ton in South China. The weekly changes in the ex - factory prices of some soda ash manufacturers were negative [44][46] - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,228 yuan/ton (+19). The soda ash Central China 05 basis was 22 yuan/ton (-69) [48][49] 11 Cost - end Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the soda ash profit was - 40 yuan/ton (-5). The cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1,313 yuan/ton (+1), with a gross profit of - 58 yuan/ton (+38); the cost of the co - production process was 1,727 yuan/ton (-11), with a gross profit of - 40 yuan/ton (-5) [50][52] 12 Cost - end Soda Ash - Inventory Transfer - Output: Last week, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons (month - on - month increase of 56,500), including 404,500 tons of heavy soda ash (month - on - month increase of 33,500) and 349,100 tons of light soda ash (month - on - month increase of 23,000) - Warehouse Receipts: At the end of last week, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 4,920 (+24) - Inventory: As of January 9, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5727 million tons (month - on - month increase of 164,400), including 736,200 tons of heavy soda ash (month - on - month increase of 60,100) and 836,500 tons of light soda ash (month - on - month increase of 104,300) [64] 13 Cost - end Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 344,400 tons (week - on - week decrease of 53,500), and for light soda ash was 244,800 tons (week - on - week decrease of 84,600) - Production - sales Rate: Last week, the soda ash production - sales rate was 78.18% (month - on - month decrease of 26.15%) - Glass Factory Inventory: In November, the soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories were 24.1 days [67][68]