2026年01月12日：期货市场交易指引-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro - finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black building materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][12] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1][14] - Tin: Range trading [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1][18] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1][20] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][24] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Bearish and range - bound [1][27] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bullish and range - bound [1][29] - Apples: Bullish and range - bound [1][31] - Jujubes: Rebound from the bottom [1][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: Sell on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [1][33] - Eggs: Wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 contract [1][34] - Corn: Cautiously chase highs in the short term, hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [1][36] - Soybean meal: Bullish for near - term contracts, bearish for far - term contracts [1][39] - Oils: Limited rebound for soybean and palm oils, bearish for rapeseed oil [1][40] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, taking into account factors such as production, demand, inventory, and policy changes [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Index futures: The US economic data and geopolitical risks may cause index futures to fluctuate. However, considering the PMI recovery in December and expectations of early policy support in the new year, the market is expected to develop further. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - Treasury bonds: The decline in bond market decline momentum has appeared, and there may be short - term support. But in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The market is in a game between strong bearish factors and weak marginal support. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests range trading on the right side [7] - Rebar: Futures prices rebounded to above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period with weakening export expectations and a seasonal weakening of the supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [7] - Glass: Although there has been a short - term rebound due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Driven by macro - sentiment and funds, the price has reached a high level, but the current demand is weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the long - term price is expected to rise. In the short term, it may maintain a wide - range high - level shock [10] - Aluminum: The current supply is in a weak state, and the price is mainly driven by expectations and funds. With increasing production capacity and weakening demand, the upward pressure is large. It is recommended to observe the policy changes [12] - Nickel: Although the price has rebounded due to factors such as quota cuts, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. The price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and pay attention to supply and demand changes [15] - Gold and silver: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cut expectations, the prices are expected to rise in the medium term. Gold is recommended for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16] - Lithium carbonate: The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is expected to move in a range [18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The current supply - demand situation is weak, but the low valuation and potential policy support suggest a low - buying strategy. It is necessary to pay attention to policies, export, and cost factors [18] - Caustic soda: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the commodity atmosphere. It is recommended to observe the changes in supply and demand [20] - Soda ash: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily leave the market and observe [28] - Styrene: The current valuation is high, and the short - term is recommended to be bearish. It is necessary to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long term [22] - Rubber: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, and the price may continue to correct. It is recommended to trade in a range [22] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and other factors [24] - Methanol: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors. It is recommended to trade in a range [25] - Polyolefins: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw material prices [27] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Affected by the global supply - demand adjustment and policy expectations, the price is expected to be bullish in a range [29] - Apples: The market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to be bullish in a range [31] - Jujubes: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [32] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: In the short term, the price fluctuates due to the game between supply and demand. In the long term, the price is expected to be weak in the first half of the year and may strengthen in the second half, but it is still cautious. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [33] - Eggs: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [34] - Corn: The short - term price has a selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [36] - Soybean meal: The short - term price is expected to be bullish in a range, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to go long on dips for the M2603 contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [39] - Oils: The short - term rebound of soybean and palm oils is limited, and the rapeseed oil is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs for soybean and palm oils and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [40]