黑色：反弹空间有限关注期现正套

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound space of the black sector is limited, and attention should be paid to the spot-futures positive arbitrage opportunities. The coal and coke sectors are expected to fluctuate, and short-term trading is recommended for iron ore. [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector strengthened collectively, with coking coal leading the rise. In terms of index涨跌幅度, the strength relationship among varieties was coking coal > coke > iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil. [4] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The overall atmosphere in the futures market was warm, with commodity prices generally rising, and the non-ferrous sector being the strongest. [4] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore had the largest increase. [13] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profitability remained stable, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral. [14] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Last week, steel production increased, demand decreased, and inventories began to accumulate, showing a seasonal weakening in the supply-demand pattern. [4][5] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Port iron ore inventories continued to increase significantly, while steel mill iron ore inventories increased slightly. Steel mill restocking before the Spring Festival was not obvious. Iron ore shipments declined from the high level, but arrivals were still at a high level. With the resumption of steel mill production in January, pig iron production rebounded slightly from the low level, and it was expected to be in a pattern of inventory accumulation in the short term. [5] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, raw coal production rebounded, and coking coal inventories continued to accumulate. However, the news of coal mine capacity reduction boosted the market, and the near-month coking coal strengthened. [5] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production increased slightly month-on-month, and inventories changed little. The spot price of coke remained stable last week, and the profit of coking plants was already low, with limited room for further compression. However, the premium of coke futures was already large. [5] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's disk profit deteriorated, and the rebar-iron ore price ratio declined. [32] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - There were various domestic and international policies, news, and events, including geopolitical events, production plans of OPEC+, regulatory adjustments of the futures exchange, and industry regulations. The EU carbon tariff was officially implemented at the beginning of 2026, which would significantly increase the cost of steel exports to the EU. [37]