国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news for each commodity, along with short - term and medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions [2][10][30]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have increased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly. Market sentiment has been affected by factors such as the US economic data and geopolitical tensions [2][6]. - Silver: It is testing new highs again. Both domestic and international silver prices have risen significantly, with strong performance in the night - trading session [2][6]. - Platinum: ETF holdings have continued to flow out, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [2][25]. - Palladium: After rising to a high, the price has fallen back. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][25]. Base Metals - Copper: The demand expectation has strengthened, and the price has increased. The production of a major copper smelter has increased, and the US economic data has also had an impact on the market [2][10]. - Zinc: It is running strongly. The inventory has decreased, and the price has been supported [2][13]. - Lead: The overseas inventory has decreased, which supports the price [2][16]. - Tin: It is oscillating and strengthening. The inventory has decreased, and the price has shown an upward trend [2][19]. - Aluminum: The center of gravity has significantly moved up. The prices of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have all shown different degrees of increase [2][22]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation [2][29]. - Stainless Steel: The price of ferronickel has lifted the oscillation center, and the market is gaming the Indonesian policy [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - related: The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has fermented, and the short - term international energy prices may be strong, which has an impact on related products such as methanol and fuel oil [98][99]. - Methanol: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The geopolitical conflict and the expected improvement of port inventory support the price, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [99]. - Urea: The price is expected to correct in the short term but remain strong in the medium term. The agricultural demand provides support [103][104]. - PTA: It is unilaterally strong. The future supply and demand are expected to be weak, but the current low - inventory de - stocking situation supports the price [65]. - MEG: It is short - term strong in a rebound. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price has support at a low level [66]. - Rubber: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The raw material prices of tires have risen, which has affected the cost and profit of the tire industry [67][71]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is oscillating at a high level. The raw material price and inventory have an impact on the market [73][74]. - LLDPE: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The market is affected by factors such as raw materials and demand [76][77]. - PP: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The market is affected by cost and demand [79][80]. - Caustic Soda: It is oscillating weakly. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory [81][83]. - Paper Pulp: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends [86][89]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass price has shown minor fluctuations [92][93]. Agricultural Products - Soybean - related: The price of soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as the US USDA report and Chinese procurement. The market is waiting for the release of the report [160][162]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policies [163][165]. - Sugar: It is in a narrow - range consolidation. The global sugar supply and demand situation and import and export policies have an impact on the market [167][168]. - Cotton: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The cotton spot price has declined slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [172][173]. - Eggs: The sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened [176]. - Hogs: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of hogs has shown minor fluctuations [179]. - Peanuts: It is oscillating. The spot price of peanuts has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand [182][183]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): It may be strong in a short - term oscillation. The 02 long positions and 04 short positions should be reduced appropriately. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and policies [126][135].