格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, but closed up during the night session. The supply of steel increased while demand decreased, and inventory increased. The market may experience different stages: first, with the market entering winter storage, there could be an increase in demand and a potential rebound in the market, with the rebound space depending on the intensity of winter storage; second, as winter storage nears its end and the Spring Festival approaches, the market will enter a "nominal trading" phase, with both supply and demand contracting and the market becoming a pure capital-driven one [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, and closed up during the night session [1] Important Information - The Ministry of Water Resources aims to maintain large-scale and high-level construction and investment in water conservancy infrastructure in 2026 [1] - According to Mysteel's research, the off-season effect is prominent, and the steel procurement volume of construction enterprises in January is expected to decline by about 18% [1] - Mysteel's research data on construction enterprises shows that the actual steel procurement volume in December 2025 was 6.67 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.6%; the planned steel procurement volume in January is 5.78 million tons, and the actual procurement volume in January may decline significantly month-on-month [1] Market Logic - The supply of the five major steel products in this period is 8.1859 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 73,800 tons. Among them, the output and inventory of rebar both increased, the output of hot-rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased. Overall, steel supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory increased [1] Trading Strategy - Possible trading logic deductions: 1. As sentiment cools, the market gradually enters winter storage, and there is an increase in demand on the demand side. The market front-runs the winter storage logic and rebounds, and the rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage. 2. As winter storage nears its end and the Spring Festival approaches, the market will enter a substantial "nominal trading" phase. Some traders will gradually close for the holiday, and some electric furnace enterprises with poor profit performance may take an early holiday, resulting in a contraction of both supply and demand. The market will enter a pure capital-driven phase [1]