金融期货早班车-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock indices as a long - position substitute can yield certain excess returns, and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, considering the upward trend in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery in the medium and long term, it is advised to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts when prices are high [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - Market Performance: On January 9, A - share major indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.92%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.15%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 1.43%. Market turnover was 31,524 billion yuan, an increase of 3,261 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of sectors, media, comprehensive, and national defense and military industries led the gains, while banks, non - bank finance, and building materials led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, with 3,918 stocks rising, 201 flat, and 1,344 falling. Institutional, main force, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 17 billion, - 281 billion, - 97 billion, and 395 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 128 billion, - 52 billion, - 120 billion, and + 43 billion yuan respectively [2]. - Basis and Annualized Yield: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 30.38, - 1.51, 5.72, and 1.52 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 3.46%, 0.17%, - 1.11%, and - 0.45%, and three - year historical quantiles of 79%, 88%, 54%, and 44% respectively [2]. - Contract - Specific Data: Details of various stock index futures contracts (such as IC2601 - IC2606, IF2601 - IF2606, IH2601 - IH2606, IM2601 - IM2606) including their names, price changes, current prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, and annualized basis yields are provided [4]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - Market Performance: On January 9, interest - rate bonds weakened slightly. Among active contracts, TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.02%, and TL fell 0.07% [2]. - Cash Bond Data: For the current active 2603 contract, the CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided. The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 340 billion yuan [2]. - Contract - Specific Data: Details of various treasury bond futures contracts (such as TS2603 - TS2609, TF2603 - TF2609, T2603 - T2609, TL2603 - TL2609) including their names, price changes, current prices, trading volumes, open interests, net basis, and CTD bond implicit interest rates are provided [5]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, import and export, and social activities is currently lower than in previous periods, while the prosperity of infrastructure and real estate is similar to previous levels [8].