一周简评：国际原油走强和热钱效应，植物油买盘托升走强，双粕底部震荡依旧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oils and Fats Sector: The international crude oil price has bottomed out and rebounded, reigniting enthusiasm for the bio - diesel concept, and domestic commodity market heat has led to capital inflows into the vegetable oil sector. Different oils have different fundamentals. Soybean oil continues to rebound, palm oil attracts hot money due to crude oil rise despite poor fundamentals, and rapeseed oil's decline is limited by low inventory [5]. - Protein Sector: China's purchase of US soybeans stabilizes the US soybean price, while domestic policies and South American production expectations limit the upside of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal is under pressure due to the expected return of Canadian rapeseed. Double - meal products will continue the medium - term震荡行情 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats and Protein Logic - Oils and Fats: International crude oil rebounds, and domestic policies and fundamentals lead to different trends in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. For example, soybean oil rebounds, palm oil attracts capital, and rapeseed oil's decline is restricted [5]. - Protein: China's purchase of US soybeans, domestic policies, and South American production expectations jointly affect the double - meal market, resulting in a medium - term震荡行情 [6]. 3.2 Operation Strategies for Three Oils and Two Meals - Single - side Operation: For vegetable oils, adopt a bullish approach, buy soybean oil and palm oil on dips. The rise of crude oil determines the upside of vegetable oils, with rapeseed oil being the weakest. For double - meal products, maintain a medium - term震荡 pattern. Specific contract support and resistance levels are provided [7]. - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategies are available currently [7][8] 3.3 Important Information - Fed interest rate cut probabilities: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 4.6% [9]. - Canadian rapeseed production: The Canadian rapeseed production is 21.8 million tons, higher than market expectations [9]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory: Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high, with production of 1.76 million tons, exports of 1.25 million tons, imports of 36,000 tons, and inventory of 2.97 million tons [9]. - China - Canada trade: China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [9]. 3.4 S&P's Adjustment of US Soybean Planting Area - In 2026, the US soybean planting area will increase by 4% to 84.5 million acres, while the corn planting area will decrease by 3.8% to 95 million acres [10]. 3.5 South American and US Gulf Import Premiums - As of January 9, the South American soybean import premium is 164 cents per bushel, and the US Gulf premium has risen significantly to 220 cents per bushel. Even after tariff cuts, the cost of importing US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans [13]. 3.6 Brazilian New Soybean Sowing and Growth - As of December 20, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean is 97.6%. The expected production is 177.124 million tons, with a planting area of 48.935 million hectares and a yield of 3,620 kg per hectare [16]. 3.7 Domestic Soybean Ship - Buying - As of January 6, different monthly ship - buying progress and quantities vary. For example, the 1 - month ship - buying progress is 100% with 4.578 million tons, and the 2 - month ship - buying progress is 87.68% with 8.33 million tons [18]. 3.8 Cofco's Old Soybean Auction - From December 11 to 19, several auctions of imported soybeans were held, with different transaction volumes, prices, and rates. There are also rumors that subsequent auctions will be converted into directional sales [22]. 3.9 Domestic Bean Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory is 6.876 million tons, the soybean meal inventory is 1.135 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory is 1.286 million tons [23]. 3.10 Oil Mill Startup Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the first week (January 3), the average startup rate of domestic major soybean oil mills is 52.25%, a decrease of 9.78% from the previous week. The current pressing volume is 1.915 million tons, and the expected volume next week is 2.2259 million tons [30]. 3.11 Weekly Transaction of Oils and Meals - This week, the average transaction price of soybean oil is 8,413.42 yuan per ton, with a transaction volume of 114,300 tons. The average transaction price of soybean meal is 3,182.58 yuan per ton, with a transaction volume of 1.53 million tons [34]. 3.12 Oils and Meals Basis - As of January 9, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 496 yuan per ton, and the basis of soybean meal's main contract is 364 yuan per ton [38]. 3.13 Malaysian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production is 1.93551 million tons, exports are 1.212814 million tons, inventory is 2.835439 million tons, and imports are 23,176 tons [42]. 3.14 Indonesian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In September, Indonesia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.97% to 2.59 million tons, exports decreased by 36.5% to 2.2 million tons, and production decreased by 22.3% to 4.3 million tons [45]. 3.15 Palm Oil Import and Profit - As of January 9, the palm oil import profit is 168.17 yuan per ton. The import volume in November is 390,000 tons, in December is 345,000 tons, and in January is 250,000 tons. The domestic palm oil inventory is 663,000 tons [49]. 3.16 Palm Oil Transaction, Basis, and Inventory - As of January 9, the basis of palm oil in Guangdong is - 2 yuan per ton. This week, the average transaction price is 8,694 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 4,300 tons [55]. 3.17 Rapeseed Import Cost and Profit - As of January 9, the FOB price of Canadian rapeseed in Guangzhou Port in February is 511 Canadian dollars per ton, and the import cost is 4,327 yuan per ton. The import profit is between 1,135.39 and 1,341.70 yuan per ton, but the import volume has decreased significantly [60]. 3.18 Rapeseed Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory is 60,000 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory is 323,000 tons [64]. 3.19 Oil Mill Startup and Pressing of Rapeseed - As of the end of the first week (January 3), the startup rate of domestic major rapeseed oil mills is 0%, and the pressing volume is 0 tons. The expected volume next week is also 0 tons [67]. 3.20 Rapeseed Transaction and Basis - This week, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal is 2,484 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 0 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed oil is 10,200 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 0 tons [72]. 3.21 CFTC Fund Dynamics - As of January 6, the non - commercial net long positions of CFTC soybeans are 104,770 lots, a decrease of 17,041 lots; the non - commercial net long positions of soybean meal are 14,212 lots, a decrease of 11,977 lots; the non - commercial net long positions of soybean oil are - 12,458 lots, a decrease of 10,084 lots [75].