集运指数（欧线）：短线或偏强震荡，02多单、04空单酌情减仓

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) may show a strong - biased oscillation. For the 02 long positions and 04 short positions, consider reducing positions as appropriate [1]. - The freight rate of the European line in the 3 - 4 month off - season is in a weak supply - demand balance, and the marginal benefit of the rush - shipping of some commodities in the first quarter cannot reverse this trend [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of EC2602 was 1,729.8, up 0.30%, with a trading volume of 11,327 and an open interest of 17,703, a decrease of 2,305. The closing price of EC2604 was 1,144.5, down 2.13%, with a trading volume of 13,495 and an open interest of 29,021, an increase of 1,247 [1]. - Freight Index: The SCFIS European route was 1,795.83 points, up 3.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route was 1,250.12 points, down 3.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route was $1,719/TEU, up 1.7% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route was $2,218/FEU, up 1.4% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight: The spot freight rates of different carriers from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for 40'GP ranging from $2,636 to $3,293 and for 20'GP from $1,533 to $2,110 [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.87, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.99 [1]. 3.2 Capacity Analysis - January Capacity: There were no pending voyages in January. The average weekly capacity was 30.9 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. There were some changes in shipping schedules during the week [11]. - February Capacity: The latest February shipping schedule included 11 blank sailings, with no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity was revised down to 27.1 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5% [11]. - March Capacity: There were 9 blank sailings and 2 pending voyages in March. The average weekly capacity was 28.4 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The Chinese New Year blank sailings were mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March [11]. - Spring Festival Capacity Comparison: The average capacity before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 was 31.3, 22.1, and 30.7 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4%. The post - festival capacity growth rate was significantly higher [12]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - General Demand: In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume peak usually appears around mid - January and then declines [13]. - New Demand Variable: The Ministry of Finance's export tax - rebate policy changes may lead to a rush - shipping season for some products in the first quarter of 2026, which has a marginal positive impact on the demand from January to March and a marginal negative impact on the demand after April. The specific impact on contracts depends on the shipping rhythm [13]. 3.4 Freight Rate Analysis - Current Spot Freight Rates: The FAK average of the 2nd - 3rd week was in the range of $2,700 - $2,760/FEU. Different alliances and carriers had different freight rate levels [14]. - Contract Valuation and Strategy - 2602 Contract: A neutral - to - pessimistic freight rate scenario was assumed, and under this scenario, the 2602 contract valuation may fall in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 points [15]. - 2604 Contract: Although there was marginal benefit from the rush - shipping in the first quarter, it could not reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the 3 - 4 month off - season [15]. - Trading Strategy: Consider reducing both 02 long positions and 04 short positions to avoid uncertainty. For the 2610 contract, maintain a strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, with the upper pressure level referring to the settlement price of the 2510 contract at 1,161 points [15][16]. 3.5 Geopolitical Situation The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not significantly cooled down [12].