国债期货早报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term and mid - term outlooks are both "oscillation", the intraday outlook is "weak", and the overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" due to the low probability of short - term interest rate cuts and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weak", the mid - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The short - term interest rate cut possibility decreases due to positive macro - economic expectations, which puts pressure on bond futures prices. However, the downside space is limited. In the long - term, there is still support for bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within a week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. The TL2603 variety is expected to be in an oscillatory state in the short and mid - term, with a weak intraday trend, mainly due to the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term easing expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Last Friday, bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. The December inflation data showed that CPI rose moderately and PPI's decline narrowed, and the December manufacturing PMI was resilient. These positive macro - economic expectations reduced the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on bond futures prices. But as the prices of bond spot fell, the implied interest rate cut expectations in bond yields faded, limiting the downside space. In the long - term, the need for a loose monetary and credit environment to address insufficient effective domestic demand provides support for bond futures, so it is expected to be in an oscillatory and consolidating state in the short - term [5].