Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2) Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. 3) Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the Friday night session, the main price of bottle chips rose by 118 yuan to 6140 yuan/ton. The price of East China water bottle - grade bottle chips was 6030 yuan/ton (-5), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6080 yuan/ton (-10). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3144 lots to 63,700 lots, and short positions increased by 3102 lots to 65,600 lots [1]. Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 334,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5592 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - Export volume: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [1]. - December 2025 production: In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [1]. - Crude oil price: The market believes that the instability of the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran situations has increased, and the potential supply risk has risen, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.36 dollars/barrel to 59.12 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.35 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.18%. The China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 7.8 to 425.8 yuan/ton, and rose 11.9 to 437.7 yuan/ton in the night session [1]. - Military news: According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5th, open - source flight tracking data and observations from ground observers showed that a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently. The number of military aircraft dispatched in a short period and their take - off locations have sparked speculation about possible special operations in the region by the US military in the future [1]. Market Logic - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. Trading Strategy - The reference range for the main contract is 6000 - 6280 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to wait and see or go long on dips [1].
格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20260112
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-12 02:56