格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the strengthening of international crude oil, the activation of the biodiesel concept, and the influx of hot money, the overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upwards. For the double - meal sector, the short - term outlook is neutral to bearish, and the mid - line maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On January 9, international crude oil strengthened, the biodiesel concept was active, and hot money flowed in, causing the vegetable oil sector to rebound. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous day, with the exception of the decrease in positions of the main and secondary contracts of rapeseed oil [1] Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons, lower than that in October but higher than the same period last year - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026 - From December 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, while exports increased by 1.6% - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 mandatory addition plan in the second half of 2026 - As of the first weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 1.04 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.46% [1][2] Market Logic - Externally, concerns about supply and geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous rise in international crude oil, boosting the strength of US soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil has broken through the pressure level, palm oil has strengthened due to the rise in international crude oil and the biodiesel concept, and rapeseed oil has recovered its decline due to the strong prices of soybean and palm oil [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upwards. Specific support and pressure levels are provided for each contract. Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] Double - Meal Sector Market Review - On January 9, due to the expectation of the visit of the Canadian government to China and Sino - Canadian negotiations, the market was worried about the entry of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal into China, causing rapeseed meal to fall sharply and dragging down soybean meal. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal showed a slight increase, while the main and secondary contracts of rapeseed meal showed a decline [2] Important Information - In the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres - As of December 18, 2025, US soybean exports to China increased compared to the previous week but were lower than the same period last year - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season may reach 178.9 million tons - As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was 0.1%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average - As of December 30, 2025, Argentina's soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 increased by 69% year - on - year, and it is estimated to reach a record 112 million tons in 2026 - As of the first weekend of 2026, domestic imported soybean inventory increased slightly, while imported rapeseed inventory remained flat. Domestic soybean meal inventory decreased, and the contract volume increased [2][3] Market Logic - Externally, the overall outlook is neutral to bearish, with strong bottom support for US soybeans but limited rebound space due to Brazil's expected high - yield. Domestically, the spot price is affected by factors such as oil refinery production and downstream demand, and the base price is prone to rise and difficult to fall. The overall double - meal maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset [3] Trading Strategy - Double - meal mid - line maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset, with intraday trading. Specific support and pressure levels are provided for each contract. No arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4]