反内卷是长跑

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market currently revolves around two major themes: the strong upward trend of non-ferrous and precious metals, driven by the demand logic of related commodities in the new energy and AI economies; and the anti-involution logic of low-valued varieties, which is gradually advancing. In 2026, the anti-involution theme may play a significant role in the market [2][5] - The overall volatility of the commodity market has increased this week. Adjustments were mainly affected by events such as the anti-monopoly of polysilicon and the cancellation of export tax rebates for some commodities, but this will not affect the anti-involution process [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Theme Analysis - The strong upward trend of non-ferrous and precious metals is essentially driven by the demand logic of related commodities in the new energy and AI economies. The anti-involution logic of low-valued varieties is gradually advancing, with the glass production showing an obvious decline, and the current daily melting volume at 150,000 tons, approaching the low limit in 2015 [2][5] Weekly Market Review - Precious Metals: Gold has shown a divergence and stagnant rise recently, and the gold-silver ratio is at a historically low level. Copper, aluminum, nickel and other metals have strong trends, and after a brief technical adjustment last week, they have strengthened again [4] - Agricultural Products: The overall trend is still expected to be volatile, with limited downside space but lacking the fundamental elements for a continuous upward trend. The global soybean supply and demand pattern remains weak, but the support for US soybeans above 1000 is still effective [4] - Chemical Industry: In 2026, it will generally operate within the anti-involution framework. The national policy emphasizes the supply and demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector, which is a key area. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and PTA has set an example, and other varieties may follow. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - Black Sector: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downside space for coal is also limited. The supply guarantee market is coming to an end. The supply guarantee is a short-term logic, while anti-involution is a more long-term logic [4] Data Tables - Table of Plate Capital Flows: The total capital flow is 56.114 billion yuan. The capital flows of precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed breeding, oilseeds, and soft commodities are 2.326 billion yuan, 11.281 billion yuan, 4.278 billion yuan, 958 million yuan, 2.506 billion yuan, 2.745 billion yuan, 3.683 billion yuan, and 1.241 billion yuan respectively [9] - Table of Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non-ferrous varieties [9] - Table of Energy and Chemical Weekly Data: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various energy and chemical varieties [11] - Table of Agricultural Product Weekly Data: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various agricultural products [12]