长江期货贵金属周报：非农就业不及预期，价格延续偏强-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December fell short of expectations, leading to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations and a rise in precious metal prices. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and initiated a reserve management - type balance - sheet expansion. With the weakening of US economic data, the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to move up. Due to concerns about potential US tariffs on platinum and palladium imports, their prices are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data to be released on Tuesday [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - US December non - farm payrolls fell short of expectations, increasing interest - rate cut expectations and providing liquidity support. Gold prices rose, with the US gold closing at $4,518 per ounce last Friday, up 4.1% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,580, and the lower support level is $4,460. Silver prices also rose due to the same factors and the continued shortage of silver spot. The weekly gain was 10.4%, closing at $79.8 per ounce, with a lower support level of $76 and an upper resistance level of $83 [6][9]. 2. Weekly View - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December were lower than expected, and the precious metal prices continued to be strong. The Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet. The slowdown in the US employment situation and the weakening of economic data suggest that the mid - term price centers of gold and silver will move up. The prices of platinum and palladium are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data [11]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple macro - economic indicators such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided in the given text [15][17][19]. 4. Current Week's Important Economic Data - The actual values and expected values of US December economic data are presented, including non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, ADP employment, and ISM non - manufacturing PMI [24]. 5. Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate decreased. It is expected that the Fed will pause interest - rate cuts in January and from January to May, and may cut interest rates 1 - 2 times after the new chairman takes office. The US is discussing the option of acquiring Greenland [25]. 6. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2,832.02 kg to 1,129,427.74 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory decreased by 51 kg to 97,653 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 312,057.22 kg to 13,677,468.74 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 71,376 kg to 620,262 kg [13][30]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of January 6, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 213,743 contracts, a decrease of 5,756 contracts from last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 28,532 contracts, a decrease of 127 contracts from last week [13][34]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On January 13 (Tuesday) at 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released; on January 14 (Wednesday) at 21:30, the US November retail sales monthly rate and November PPI annual rate will be released; on January 15 (Thursday) at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 will be released [36].