海外策略周报：关注联储主席提名的催化-20260112

Core Views - The overseas market is influenced by geopolitical disturbances driving commodity prices up, while US stocks rise due to favorable technology catalysts and easing economic concerns. The MSCI global index increased by 1.49%, with most regional indices rising, led by South Korea. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 rose by 1.6%, 1.9%, 2.3%, and 4.6% respectively. The 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields changed by -1bp and 7bp to 4.18% and 3.54% respectively. The US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.14, while COMEX gold, silver, and ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.07%, 10.41%, and 3.65% respectively [2][19][22]. Macro Overview - The US PMI shows continued divergence, with no further deterioration in the labor market. The ISM manufacturing PMI for December recorded 47.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, indicating manufacturing contraction. The services PMI rose to 54.4%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by strong holiday demand. Non-farm payrolls for December added 50,000 jobs, below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% [2][3][4]. Policy Insights - The US is increasing control over Venezuelan oil, with Trump announcing that Venezuela will transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of sanctioned high-quality oil to the US, which will be sold at market prices. Trump also indicated he has decided on a new Federal Reserve chairperson, with an announcement expected soon. The Supreme Court has yet to release a ruling on Trump's tariffs, with the next key date being January 14 [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The US stock market is supported by the CES technology conference and improved employment data, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing significant gains. The S&P 500 index's PE ratio is at 29.75, above the historical average, indicating high valuation levels. The index's price-to-earnings ratio relative to the 10-year Treasury yield is 0.82, also above the historical average [23][28][29]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, all sectors except utilities saw gains, with consumer discretionary, materials, and industrials leading the way. Notable concept indices such as OLED, 3D printing, and lithium batteries performed well, with increases of 11.5%, 10.1%, and 8.8% respectively [33][29]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 0.4% and 0.9% respectively. The healthcare sector led gains due to favorable policies, while the overall market remains volatile amid changing expectations for interest rate cuts [38][43].