地缘扰动加剧，资源保障存忧，沪铜仍强：铜周报20260111-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The geopolitical disturbances are intensifying, there are concerns about resource security, and the Shanghai copper market remains strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Impact Factor Analysis - Macro (Positive): In 2026, the central bank will increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The US president is discussing a plan to acquire Greenland, including military options, and has instructed the purchase of $200 billion in US mortgage - backed bonds. China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, and PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, falling short of expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The January Michigan consumer confidence index reached a four - month high [6]. - Demand (Negative): Affected by holidays and high prices, the operating rate of refined copper rods continued to be under pressure, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The transaction area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities last week decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production plan of household air conditioners in January increased by 11% compared with last year's actual performance, but the production plans in January and February were different due to the Spring Festival, with the cumulative production basically flat. The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market from December 1st to 31st increased by 7% year - on - year. The overall production plan of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline significantly, and the export tax rebate for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [6]. - Supply (Neutral): According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrates this week was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons and at a low level compared with the same period last year. Codelco's copper production in 2025 was 1.332 million tons, a slight increase compared with 2024. Rio Tinto and Glencore are conducting preliminary consultations on a potential business merger. According to SMM, the domestic electrolytic copper production in December increased by 6.8% month - on - month and 7.54% year - on - year, mainly due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled smelters and the increase in the production of scrap - produced anode copper. The electrolytic copper production in January is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [6]. - Inventory (Negative): This week, the spot and bonded - area inventories of electrolytic copper increased month - on - month. LME copper stocks decreased, while COMEX copper stocks increased. According to Steel Union, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper on Thursday was 284,700 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons compared with Monday and 37,600 tons compared with last Thursday; the bonded - area inventory was 115,200 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with Monday and 6,800 tons compared with last Thursday. The LME copper inventory on Friday was 138,975 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,350 tons; the COMEX copper inventory on Friday was 517,999 short tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,158 short tons [6]. - Specific Production (Neutral): On Friday, the spot premiums and discounts of premium copper, flat - grade copper, and wet - process copper were 30, - 80, and - 175 yuan/ton respectively. Due to the high price level and weak spot copper transactions, the premiums and discounts were under pressure. The spread between the February and March contracts of Shanghai copper closed at - 170 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, continuing to be under pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened slightly week - on - week [6]. 3.2 Price Data - The high price level led to weak spot copper transactions, and the premiums and discounts were under pressure [11]. - The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened slightly week - on - week [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week decreased by $0.43/ton month - on - month to - $45.41/ton, still at a low level [15]. - The port inventory of copper concentrates this week was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons and at a low level compared with the same period last year [18]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper strengthened [20]. - The domestic electrolytic copper production in December increased by 6.8% month - on - month and 7.54% year - on - year, and the production in January is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [23]. - In November, China imported 269,200 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%, and exported 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.8% [26]. - This week, the spot and bonded - area inventories of electrolytic copper increased month - on - month, LME copper stocks decreased, and COMEX copper stocks increased [27][28]. - Affected by holidays and high prices, the operating rate of refined copper rods continued to be under pressure, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines [31]. - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market from December 1st to 31st increased by 7% year - on - year [32]. - The overall production plan of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline, and the export tax rebate for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [33]. - The production plans of household air conditioners in January and February were different due to the Spring Festival, with the cumulative production basically flat [35]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - China's RatingDog service industry PMI in December was 52, remaining in the expansion range, but new export orders fell back into contraction [37]. - The US January Michigan consumer confidence index reached a four - month high, and inflation expectations were relatively stable [40]. - "New Fed Wire" said that the December non - farm employment data paved the way for maintaining the status quo, and traders expect it is almost impossible to make a change in January [41].