生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has oscillated upwards. The market is worried that the sugar production in Guangxi may decline year - on - year, and the domestic sugar spot price has slightly recovered. Globally, sugar is still in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [3]. - Pulp: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually alleviating, and the cost of new warehouse receipts has increased, which may drive up the bottom of the futures price. However, the global bleached softwood kraft pulp is not in short supply, and the ability of paper mills to accept high - priced pulp is limited. The upward space of pulp price is limited without further supply reduction or new production cut news [3]. - Double - offset paper: After the festival, the futures price of double - offset paper continued to rise, but the spot market was stable. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the upward space of the futures price is expected to be limited [5]. - Cotton: The futures price of cotton showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Globally, the supply of cotton is abundant, and the consumption side lacks obvious drivers. In the short term, the futures price may be slightly adjusted [7]. - Apple: The main 05 contract of apples showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The supply side has support, but the bullish factors have been somewhat realized, and the market is worried about consumption. The futures price is expected to be in a high - level range [8]. - Jujube: After the New Year's Day, the jujube futures price oscillated at a low level and tentatively rose. The spot market has entered the consumption peak season, and the inventory has started to decline. Pay attention to the spot and inventory situation in January [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously due to medium - term supply support but with a declining marginal driving force. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 10000 - 10200. For Jujube 2605, it is recommended to reduce short positions as the spot market enters the consumption peak season and the inventory has peaked [18]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to go long with a small position in the short term because of the uncertainty of domestic sugar production and sufficient international supply. For Pulp 2605, it is recommended to go long within a range. For Double - offset paper 2605, it is recommended to wait and see. For Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9689, with a weekly increase of 569 and a weekly increase rate of 6.24%. - Jujube 2605 closed at 9150, with a weekly increase of 185 and a weekly increase rate of 2.06%. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5288, with a weekly increase of 37 and a weekly increase rate of 0.70%. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5550, with a weekly increase of 18 and a weekly increase rate of 0.33%. - Double - offset paper 2602 closed at 4196, with a weekly increase of 18 and a weekly increase rate of 0.43%. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14675, with a weekly increase of 90 and a weekly increase rate of 0.62% [19]. 3.2.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.70 yuan per jin, with no环比 change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, with a环比 decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan per ton, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 650 yuan. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5580 yuan, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 850 yuan. - The spot price of cotton was 15930 yuan per ton, with a环比 decrease of 62 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1278 yuan [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only relevant figure references are given. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only relevant figure references are given. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no环比 or year - on - year change. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 2523, with a环比 increase of 260 and a year - on - year decrease of 716. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 6005, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 9158. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 136489, with a环比 increase of 983 and a year - on - year decrease of 202170. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 7388, with a环比 increase of 199 and a year - on - year increase of 2848. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton yarn is 20, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 97 [43]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data - Apple 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been somewhat realized, and the futures price is in a high - level range [45]. - Jujube 2605: Sell deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market, and the spot inventory is high [45]. - Sugar 2605: Buy out - of - the - money call options as there is a divergence in China's sugar production, and the futures price may rise in the short term [45]. - Cotton 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as there is a situation of strong expectation vs. weak reality, and the futures price is expected to continue to move up [45]. - Pulp 2605: Sell put options with an exercise price of 4900 and call options with an exercise price of 5300 as there is cost support but weak upward fundamental driving force [45]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - Production Area Weather: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [54]. - Export Situation: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [57]. - Inventory Situation: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [59]. 3.7.2 Jujube No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [62]. 3.7.3 Sugar No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [64]. 3.7.4 Pulp No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [70]. 3.7.5 Double - offset paper No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [83]. 3.7.6 Cotton No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [88].