原油：关注伊朗问题等上行风险，Brent或挑战65-68美元/桶

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the upside risks such as the Iran issue, and Brent crude oil may challenge the range of $65 - $68 per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral outlook [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 02 rose $1.36, or 2.35%, to $59.12 per barrel - ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 rose $1.35, or 2.18%, to $63.34 per barrel - SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 11.90 yuan per barrel, or 2.79%, at 437.70 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage: All listed crude oil varieties (Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, Forties) have a closed arbitrage state, with reasons including unprofitable imports, low cracking profits, high freight, weak demand, and lack of competitiveness [2] - Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage: Forties has a closed arbitrage state with limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space, while Arab Extra Light has an open arbitrage state with an arbitrage opportunity in the US East [2] - North - West Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage: WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have an open arbitrage state due to good cracking profits, strong demand, and improved cost - effectiveness respectively. Azeri Light has a closed state because of environmental policies [3] - Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage: All listed crude oil varieties (Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk) have a closed arbitrage state due to low demand, high freight, and structural oversupply [3] - Asia Crude Oil Arbitrage: All listed crude oil varieties (Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, Eagle Ford) have a closed arbitrage state due to intense competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [4] 3.3 Key Market News - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the government recognizes peaceful protests and is willing to meet with protest groups - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the Iran situation with US Secretary of State Rubio - US President Trump said that the flow of oil and funds from Venezuela to Cuba will end - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi opposed the "Somaliland" colluding with Taiwan authorities for independence - Cuban Foreign Minister stated that Cuba will not yield to US extortion or military coercion [4][5]